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Mangaluru: The southwest monsoon is expected to reach the Kerala coast on May 26, and rainfall is likely to begin along the Karnataka coast within two days, according to weather forecasts.

In the past few years, the monsoon has been arriving early along the Karnataka coast. Last year, the monsoon entered the region on May 24, bringing heavy rainfall across the district. Normally, the monsoon reaches the coast around June 5. However, in 2025, it arrived 12 days earlier than usual. A similar trend is likely this year as well.

According to the forecast by the India Meteorological Department, Karnataka may receive below-normal rainfall during this monsoon season. Usually, the monsoon reaches the coastal belt by the end of May or during the first week of June. This year, however, it is likely to arrive earlier than expected.

The monsoon has already advanced towards the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and is moving towards Kerala. Current forecasts indicate that India may receive below-normal rainfall this year. The development of El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean could directly affect the monsoon

Monsoon arrival dates in Kerala over the years

The monsoon reached the Kerala coast on May 23 in 2009, May 31 in 2010, May 29 in 2011, June 5 in 2012, June 1 in 2013, June 6 in 2014, June 5 in 2015, June 8 in 2016, May 30 in 2017, May 29 in 2018, June 8 in 2019, June 1 in 2020, June 3 in 2021, May 29 in 2022, June 8 in 2023, May 30 in 2024, and May 24 in 2025.

The coastal region received good monsoon rainfall last year. Against the normal rainfall of 3,100.7 mm, the region recorded 3,194 mm of rainfall.

In Dakshina Kannada district, rainfall was 1 per cent below normal. However, Udupi district received 4 per cent excess rainfall, while Uttara Kannada district recorded 5 per cent above-normal rainfall. Overall, the coastal region received 3 per cent excess rainfall during the monsoon season.