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Dubai Airports appears set to ride out recent geopolitical headwinds, with passenger numbers expected to touch as high as 90 million this year despite the prolonged US-Iran tensions that have rattled regional airspace over the past two months, according to an aviation expert.

Saj Ahmad, Chief Analyst at London-based StrategicAero Research, said the emirate’s aviation hub remains firmly on course to hit the coveted 100 million passenger mark by early next year. Dubai International (DXB) had already set a new benchmark in 2025, welcoming a record-breaking 95.2 million travellers — its busiest year on record.

“Dubai Airports’ 2026 traffic forecast will certainly take a hit, but if the ceasefire holds and evolves into a lasting resolution, there is still a strong chance the airport can handle between 85 million and 90 million passengers this year,” Ahmad told BTR. “That said, this projection hinges on no fresh flare-ups disrupting the flight path.”

Dubai Airports signalled last week that it is ready to throttle up operations, progressively increasing flight movements as regional airspace restrictions ease following the April 8 ceasefire between the US and Iran. Despite operating in constrained conditions since February 28 — with disruptions peaking in March — Dubai’s airports kept aircraft wheels turning, facilitating the safe transit of 6 million passengers, more than 32,000 flights, and over 213,000 tonnes of critical cargo by April 30.

The turbulence was clearly reflected in first-quarter performance. DXB handled 18.6 million passengers, a 20.6 per cent year-on-year decline, while March traffic nosedived 65.7 per cent to 2.5 million, underscoring the impact of restricted skies. However, Dubai’s position as a global transit hub remains its ace in the pack. Of the nearly 99.3 million passengers worldwide whose journeys could be routed via the Middle East, the region captures roughly 70 per cent, with DXB alone accounting for 32 per cent of that traffic. As skies begin to clear, this transfer segment is expected to rebound swiftly, driven by demand that cannot easily be diverted elsewhere.

Dubai’s position as a global transit hub remains its ace in the pack. Of the nearly 99.3 million passengers worldwide whose journeys could be routed via the Middle East, the region captures roughly 70 per cent, with DXB alone accounting for 32 per cent of that traffic.

Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths remains bullish on the long-haul trajectory. Speaking on the sidelines of the Dubai Airshow 2025 press conference in October, Griffiths said DXB is on final approach to the 100 million passenger milestone within the next 18 months.

“The UAE, and Dubai in particular, continues to smash records,” Griffiths said. “DXB alone is lining up to cross the remarkable 100 million passenger mark, reinforcing its status as the global hub of choice.”

Looking ahead, Dubai Airports is banking on resilient underlying demand and improving airspace capacity to regain lost altitude. The operator is actively working with airline partners and regulators to unlock additional slots and expand network capacity.

“The airport is well positioned to accommodate further growth in the months ahead,” Dubai Airports said, adding that long-term expansion plans at Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International are progressing steadily, ensuring the emirate’s aviation sector has ample runway for future growth.

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