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Stop labeling Japan’s national football team as a ‘dark horse’ in the World Cup. That term has become outdated, especially in recent years, including during the 2022 World Cup.

Local football analyst Gigih Windar stated, “It’s very old-fashioned to call Japan a dark horse.”

“Japan has never been a dark horse,” he insisted when contacted on Wednesday (3 June 2026).

Gigih’s reasoning is straightforward: just look at Japan’s recent results.

In March, during two away matches, Japan recorded identical 1-0 victories over Scotland and England.

Imagine that — England, one of the 2026 World Cup contenders, packed with world-class players and managed by Champions League-winning coach Thomas Tuchel.

Phil Foden, Marcus Rashford, Harry Maguire, and Cole Palmer were all on the pitch when they suffered that defeat.

Japan also defeated South American powerhouse Brazil, led by Carlo Ancelotti, in October last year.

Dutch Eredivisie top scorer Ayase Ueda netted the decisive goal in Japan’s 3-2 win over Brazil.

Going back to the 2022 Qatar World Cup — who would have thought Japan would top Group E ahead of European giants Spain and Germany?

The Samurai Blue were nearly flawless, if not for a slip-up against Costa Rica.

With the current squad quality, Japan can no longer be underestimated or dismissed with the ‘dark horse’ label — their credentials speak for themselves.

Of Japan’s 26 players named for the 2026 World Cup, only three play in domestic competitions: Keisuke Osako (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Tomoki Hayakawa (Kashima Antlers), and veteran defender Yuto Nagatomo (FC Tokyo).

Nagatomo previously played in Europe, including during Erick Thohir’s tenure at Inter Milan.

The rest of Hajime Moriyasu’s squad is spread across Europe’s top-tier leagues.

Spanish media outlet Marca wrote that Japan’s ‘dark horse’ label originally stemmed from its identity. Unlike teams that rely on individual brilliance, Japan has built a system based on discipline, structure, and collective execution.

This approach was clear in their match against England at Wembley.

Moriyasu’s men were compact defensively, restricted space in midfield, and capitalised on their chances.

“Beating a traditionally strong European team away from home requires more than luck, and Japan demonstrated a level of organisation that’s vital for tournament success,” Marca noted.

Another factor that removes Japan’s ‘dark horse’ status is experience.

Japan consistently qualifies for the World Cup and has developed a reputation as a tough side to beat.

The Samurai Blue have proven capable of challenging elite teams and performing under pressure.

Adaptability and Tactical Identity

Over the past three years, Moriyasu has shown little conservatism — a reason why Japan could be one of the most exciting teams when the World Cup returns this summer, according to ESPN.

Moriyasu favours a five-defender formation, but in practice, Japan often shape into a 3-2-4-1 setup.

During Asian qualifiers, Moriyasu deployed Ritsu Doan and Kaoru Mitoma as wing-backs — both naturally attack-minded players who take on defensive duties when required.

They are given freedom to attack using their creativity and instincts.

This system integrates two playmakers behind the striker, meaning Japan often field five offensive players in their starting lineup.

Additionally, Wataru Endo and his midfield partner provide constant support to the forwards.

When Japan control possession, they often push seven players into the final third, with three centre-backs advancing to the halfway line to reclaim and sustain possession.

The attacking emphasis under Moriyasu produced 54 goals in 16 qualifying matches while conceding only three.

However, this attacking output may be affected in the main tournament due to injuries to key players Takumi Minamino and Kaoru Mitoma.

Moriyasu will have to adapt once again and adjust his tactics according to player availability.

“Losing two stars is significant, but the system should still function regardless of personnel,” ESPN wrote.

Local Perspectives on Japan’s Challenges

According to Gigih, Japan’s players strictly follow Moriyasu’s instructions.

He cited Japan’s dominant 5-0 victory over Indonesia, even though the Garuda squad featured in-form players like Kevin Diks (Monchengladbach), Jay Idzes, and Emil Audero, all performing well in Serie A.

Moriyasu’s tactics showcased Japan’s supremacy as the top-ranked Asian team in FIFA standings.

Yet, Gigih recalled a comment from legendary Japanese coach Ivica Osim, who once told The Guardian that Japan struggle globally due to a lack of on-field initiative.

“When the coach says A, they do A. There’s no initiative. That’s still Japan’s main issue — though in a way, it’s also their strength,” Gigih explained.

“Moriyasu’s tactics always work; they are never implemented incorrectly,” he added.

He compared Japan to Brazil’s ‘Jogo Bonito’ era of the 1980s and 1990s — football built on beauty, creativity, joy, and individual skill rather than rigid tactics — but noted that Japan lack those spontaneous creative sparks.

“Football always needs that — creative individuals who can make a difference on the pitch,” he said.

“It can sometimes contradict a coach’s tactics. Think of players like Lamine Yamal for Barcelona and Spain, or the old guard of Iniesta, Xavi, and Busquets,” he continued.

Such players can unlock tight defences when tactics fail — something Japan currently lack.

“That’s Japan’s weakness even today. Ivica Osim said it back in 2006, and the issue remains the same,” Gigih added.

“They have no players who can contradict tactical rigidity with individual initiative. So yes, they’re contenders, but going deep in the tournament is still uncertain.”

He predicts Japan could reach the quarter-finals.

“Not yet the semi-finals. In 2022, they beat Germany and Spain, but lost to Costa Rica,” he said.

“Costa Rica didn’t have many shots on goal but were effective. When Japan faced a defensive opponent, they struggled to break them down,” he explained.

“There was no player who could take the initiative to change the flow of the game — everything followed Moriyasu’s tactical script. That’s Japan’s identity,” he concluded.

Thus, this trait can be both Japan’s strength and weakness heading into the 2026 World Cup.

In 2026, Japan will face the Netherlands, Tunisia, and Sweden in Group F.

Their opening match against the Netherlands is expected to be cautious, but they may show their full strength against Tunisia and Sweden to prove they’re no longer underdogs.

According to ESPN, history shows that teams advancing deep in the tournament often play expressive, entertaining football.

Japan have been described as one of the most exciting teams to watch, even without stars like Mitoma and Minamino, who can change games.

Can Japan script another historic chapter at the 2026 World Cup?