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Recently, the figures of inflation rate of February have been revealed. Inflation figures have gone below the RBI tolerance level. Which has given a clear indication that in the month of April, RBI can once again cut interest rates. However, the country's largest bank SBI has said in its report that the 4 RBI MPCs between April and October can see a reduction of 75 basis points i.e. 0.75 percent in interest rates.

This means that common people are expected to get relief in loan EMI. If this happens, in the year 2025, RBI's repo rate will come down from one percent to 5.50 percent. In the month of February, the RBI MPC had cut a 25 basis point and according to estimates, the 75 basis points could be cut in 2025 further. In such a situation, the total cuts can be seen by one percent. Let us also tell you what kind of estimate has been made by SBI in its report.

Inflation may be reduced

SBI Research Ekarap has predicted a 75 basis point cut in interest rates in this financial year. Experts believe that CPI inflation will be 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 25 and an average will be 4.7 percent for the whole year. However, given the financial year 26, inflation is expected to be between 4.0 per cent and 4.2 per cent, with the core inflation from 4.2 per cent to 4.4 per cent. Given this trend, analysts estimate that the rate of at least 75 basis points will be cut during this bicycle, expected to cut continuously in April and June 2025. Another round of rate cuts may begin in October 2025.

The report said that with low inflation this month and further, we hope that the cuts in interest rates during the bicycle can be of at least 75 basis points, the next policy will be continuously cut in April and June 2025. After August 2025, the bicycle of interest rate cuts may start again from October 2025.

Due to low inflation

India's retail inflation came to a 7 -month low with 3.6 per cent in February 2025, due to the sharp fall in food prices. Due to a significant decline in the prices of vegetables, inflation of food and beverages declined to 3.84 percent. It is noteworthy that due to the heavy fall in garlic, potato and tomato prices, for the first time in 20 months, inflation of vegetables was seen negative. Experts believe that the Mahakumbh Utsav played a role in reducing the consumption of garlic, while the prices of fruits jumped due to increasing demand during fasting. Despite the decrease in inflation, imported inflation is increasing, which increased from 1.3 percent in June 2024 to 31.1 percent in February 2025. This increase is due to high prices of precious metals, oils and chemical products. The fall in the rupee can further affect inflation in the coming months.

Industrial and corporate sector also strong

Meanwhile, India's Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a strong growth of 5 percent in January 2025, which was 3.2 percent in December 2024. The manufacturing sector gained a growth of 5.5 per cent, while mining increased by 4.4 per cent. However, from April 2024 to January 2025, this growth was 4.2 percent, which is less than 6 percent recorded in the same period last year. Despite economic fluctuations, the Indian corporate sector showed flexibility. Around 4,000 listed Q3 FY25 saw 6.2 per cent revenue growth, with Ebitda 11 per cent and Pat increased by 12 per cent compared to the previous year. Areas such as Capital Goods, Consumer Durables, FMCG, Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals recorded a strong growth.