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In the midst of geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East, Ramdev Agrawal, Chairman of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, remarked that India stands out as a 'Ferrari' in the global market, continuing to be one of the best hunting grounds for multi-bagger stocks.

Speaking at the Grow India Investor Festival 2026, Agrawal highlighted that decades of compounding, increasing financialization, and structural growth trends have laid a robust foundation for the Indian market. He noted that he has witnessed the Sensex rise from 100 to 80,000 over the past 40 years, and he sees no reason to believe that the next 40 years will be any different.

While markets in South Korea and Japan have recently surged to record levels, the Indian stock market has provided comparatively lower returns. Analysts attribute this disparity to the AI boom, which has led to strong earnings in these markets, attracting Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI). However, Agrawal reiterated that India's long-term structural path remains unparalleled, acknowledging that some sectors are currently benefiting from AI-driven earnings.

Comparative Analysis of Sensex and Kospi

Agrawal compared the Sensex with South Korea's Kospi, both launched in January 1980. He pointed out that while the Korean benchmark index hovers around 5,000 points today, the Sensex has surpassed 80,000. He stated that while the form may change over time, the class remains eternal, asserting that India is on the right path.

Market experts noted that over the past two decades, India's market capitalization has grown at an annual rate of approximately 14% in dollar terms, compared to about 7% for the US market. They emphasized that investors can expect to double their investments every five to six years, highlighting the market's momentum.

Why India Produces More Multi-Baggers?

The Chairman of MOFSL explained that his investment philosophy has always focused on identifying businesses operating in rapidly growing industries within fast-growing economies. Citing an internal study inspired by Thomas Phelps' book '100 to 1 in the Stock Market', Agrawal revealed that nearly 20% of companies in the NSE 500 have delivered annual returns exceeding 25% over a decade, effectively becoming multi-baggers. In contrast, this figure is only around 7% for the S&P 500.

He emphasized that multi-bagging occurs where growth is fastest, and the highest number of multi-baggers can be found in the fastest-growing countries and industries. According to this seasoned market player, vision, courage, and patience are the three key elements for identifying winning stocks. He added that when investing in a major stock, one often finds themselves alone, necessitating strong conviction to stay the course.

Early Investment in Bharti Airtel

Agrawal reminisced about his early investment in Bharti Airtel. In 2003, after studying the economics of the network business and conversing with Sunil Bharti Mittal, he became convinced that India's mobile revolution would generate significant value.

At that time, India had only about 50 million fixed-line phones in a population exceeding one billion. Agrawal estimated that Bharti Airtel could earn a profit of ₹27,000-28,000 crores in the next five years, even though its market capitalization was around ₹5,000 crores.

Despite skepticism from peers and friends, he purchased Bharti Airtel shares at approximately ₹1,930 each. He recalled feeling isolated during this investment. Although he sold some shares early under pressure, he retained a significant portion, as the stock's value increased manifold. His final exit occurred years later at around ₹650 per share, yielding nearly a 25-fold return.

Next Generation of Winners

Agrawal indicated that India's expanding capital market ecosystem could foster the next wave of multi-baggers. He mentioned that they are adding approximately 3 million new customers each month, with over 220 million demat accounts already in existence. By 2031-32, this number could reach 500-600 million.

He noted that the increasing participation of retail investors would create opportunities for brokers, exchanges, asset managers, wealth platforms, and depositories. Despite having a deep understanding of the sector, he admitted missing out on the tremendous surge in BSE, humorously noting that the stock price had increased nearly 50-fold without him profiting from it. He drew parallels between today's quick commerce pace and the early days of Bharti Airtel.

Companies to Avoid

Despite his growth aspirations, Agrawal stated that he applies strict filters when evaluating businesses. He avoids companies with a return on equity below 20% and pays particular attention to the receivables cycle as an indicator of business quality.

He remarked that if the return on equity is around 9 or 10%, he wouldn't even consider attending a meeting. He emphasized that management quality is his most significant filter, warning that promoters who are likely to fail will take others down with them. Agrawal stressed the importance of visiting factories and observing operations firsthand rather than relying solely on management presentations.

Will Sensex Cross 300,000 by 2036?

Agrawal expressed optimism about India's long-term macroeconomic trajectory. He predicted that per capita income could double in the next six to seven years. This seasoned market player believes that due to consistently rising earnings and increasing participation in financial assets, the Sensex could reach 150,000 by 2030 and potentially 300,000 by 2036. He stated that reaching 150,000 in six years is more certain than the likelihood of the Sensex hitting 300,000 in twelve years, emphasizing that this is how compounding works.