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New Delhi: The election results of Assam, Kerala, West Bengal and South Indian states have intensified the stir in the politics of Uttar Pradesh. Manipulations have already started regarding the UP Assembly elections to be held in the year 2027. Although Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav has been repeatedly saying that the ‘India Alliance’ is united, but the recent election data has given sleepless nights to the SP. The reason is Congress’s tremendous ‘strike rate’ on Muslim dominated seats.

Congress’s ‘Muslim magic’ in other states

If we look at the recent election data, Congress’s hold among Muslim voters has strengthened. In Assam, Congress had fielded 20 Muslim candidates, out of which 18 won. In Kerala also, 8 Muslim candidates won on Congress tickets. Talking about West Bengal, the two victorious Congress candidates there have come from Muslim dominated seats only. The performance of Congress in Tamil Nadu was also commendable.

To understand the importance of these figures, it is important to look at the mathematics of population. According to the 2011 census, there is about 34.2% Muslim population in Assam and 27% in West Bengal. In Kerala this figure is 26.6%. The Muslim support received by Congress in these states has proved that minority voters are now looking towards Congress with hope again.

Will tension increase over seats in UP?

Out of 403 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh, Muslim voters decide victory and defeat in about 143 seats. Of these, there are 73 seats where the Muslim population is more than 30 percent. 45 assembly seats come under the ambit of the 6 seats that Congress had won in UP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Now experts believe that on the basis of these figures, Congress will demand more seats from Akhilesh Yadav in 2027.

The biggest challenge for SP is that it will not be ready to give share in its core votebank (PDA) to Congress. Akhilesh Yadav has made it clear that “he who can win the seat will fight”, but Congress is now preparing to strongly stake claim on Muslim dominated seats like Saharanpur, Sitapur, Barabanki and Amethi.

Congress keeps a close eye on these 20 seats

The main focus of Congress is on those areas where it performed brilliantly in 2024. Muslim voters are playing a decisive role in Behat and Saharanpur Nagar of Saharanpur district, 5 seats of Sitapur, Barabanki and Allahabad North and West seats of Prayagraj. Muslim vote bank has been the basis of Congress’s victory in Amethi and Rae Bareli also.

Now the question is whether Akhilesh Yadav will give space to Congress to expand in his ‘fortress’? If Muslim voters shift towards Congress, then the path to power may become difficult for SP. Before the 2027 war, solving this problem of seat sharing within the ‘India Alliance’ will be a big test for both Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi.