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Mamata Banerjee has long been a vocal voice against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Be it opposing the policies of Modi government on any issue or fighting against BJP on the ground, Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress were the most vocal voices. The reason for this was that TMC, which was in power in West Bengal, remained strong in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha also. Now after the defeat in Bengal, TMC is going to face a big crisis. TMC, which has been in power till now, is facing such a challenge after almost one and a half decade which is going to be very heavy on it. Now in a few years, the number of TMC MPs in Rajya Sabha is also going to reduce, in such a situation the voice of TMC in Delhi may also get weakened.

The mandate from Bengal is not just a sign of a change of power but it reflects a rift in the political system that Mamata Banerjee had built over the last decade and a half. After this election, Trinamool Congress (TMC) is facing its biggest challenge till date. For Trinamool Congress, which has been the main axis of state politics since 2011, this defeat is not just an electoral defeat but also the defeat of its agenda. The BJP has made a decisive dent in the system which was based on centralized leadership, welfare schemes and a strong organizational structure.

Regarding this, political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty said, ‘Trinamool’s model was based on access to power. As soon as this axis changes, the entire structure has to be reinvented.’ The figures show the depth of this change. BJP’s vote share has increased from 38 percent to about 44.8 percent in 2021, which shows both the expansion and strength of its base. At the same time, TMC’s vote share declined from 48 percent to about 41.7 percent, which reflects the continuing loss of its social base, especially in semi-urban areas.

TMC stronghold breached

Another important aspect is that in 177 constituencies the number of names removed from the voter list was more than the previous victory margin. BJP not only maintained its strong position on these seats, but also made a huge dent in the Trinamool strongholds. Another political analyst said, ‘This is not a wave in the traditional sense, but a redistribution of political ground. BJP has now transformed from a challenger to a system-changing force. Centralization, which was Trinamool’s biggest strength, has now emerged as its main weakness.

When this layer weakens due to excessive dependence on the top leadership, the party is left with limited institutional security mechanisms. Moreover, due to its inability to expand to other states unlike the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Trinamool’s base has been almost entirely limited to Bengal, further deepening the impact of this defeat. The ramifications within the party could be immediate and potentially destabilizing. An organization based on administrative control, patronage mechanisms and electoral dominance now faces the challenge of managing itself without these tools. Amidst the lack of ideological unity, there is a possibility of some leaders and public representatives changing parties. This situation could be like an existential crisis for Trinamool.

For Mamata Banerjee, this election was considered one of the decisive battles of her political life. After being in power for three terms and a long time, this contest was not only to save the government, but also to save the political structure created by them. At the age of 71 and after completing three terms, Mamata’s path to comeback looks tougher than ever. Although their ability to recover from movements like Singur and Nandigram has been seen before, this time the scale of the challenge is different, where time, organizational weakness and strong opponents are present simultaneously.

How will work work without power?

Yet, Mamata Banerjee’s political journey has often been strengthened by the politics of conflict. If out of power, she may try to recast the party as an opposition force. Its effects will be visible at the national level also. A defeat in Bengal could weaken his immediate effectiveness in the opposition alliance. However, his political relevance does not end completely.

In the coming times, the role of Abhishek Banerjee will also be monitored, whose organizational responsibilities may increase. However, it will not be easy to handle internal challenges without the support of power.

The growing influence of anti-incumbency wave was also at the root of Trinamool’s defeat. Allegations of corruption, recruitment scams and organized opposition tactics weakened the party’s position. The result is a long-awaited success for the BJP but it also comes with the challenge of governing in a politically sensitive state where its main rival still remains strong. It is clear that Bengal has now entered a new political era. The biggest challenge for Trinamool at present is not to return to power, but to redefine itself without power. This result also signals the end of the political cycle that Mamata Banerjee started by ending the 34-year-old Left Front rule.

Will TMC be weak in Rajya Sabha?

There are a total of 16 MPs from West Bengal in the Rajya Sabha, out of which 13 are from TMC and 3 from BJP. This number is going to change in the coming time. The tenure of a total of 6 MPs will end in 2029 and the tenure of 5 MPs will end in 2030. Among the MPs retiring in 2029, 5 MPs are from TMC and one MP is from BJP. Similarly, out of the five MPs retiring in 2030, four are from TMC and one is from BJP. That means, out of 11, 9 MPs are from TMC and 2 are from BJP. As per the number of existing MLAs, TMC’s numbers will reduce drastically and the number of BJP’s Rajya Sabha MPs in West Bengal will increase significantly by 2030.