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After electoral battles across West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry over the course of the month, attention is now turning to the exit polls — the first broad indicators of how voters may have cast their ballots.

Please follow live updates of exit poll predictions

West Bengal Exit Polls live updates

Multiple exit polls released after the conclusion of voting in West Bengal projected a strong showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party, with several surveys indicating that the party could cross the majority mark in the 294-member Assembly and potentially unseat the ruling Trinamool Congress.

The ABP-CVoter poll, based on inputs from Chanakya Strategies, projected the BJP to win between 150 and 160 seats, placing it above the majority mark of 148. The Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, was projected to secure between 130 and 140 seats, while others were estimated to win between six and 10 seats.

The Praja Poll survey projected an even bigger advantage for the BJP, estimating the party’s tally at between 178 and 208 seats. The TMC was projected to secure between 85 and 110 seats, while others were estimated at zero to five seats.

Poll Diary also projected an edge for the BJP, estimating the party’s tally between 142 and 171 seats. The survey projected the TMC to win between 99 and 127 seats, Congress between three and five seats, and others between five and nine seats.

Meanwhile, the Matrize exit poll projected a tighter race but still gave the BJP an advantage, estimating the party’s tally between 146 and 161 seats, while the Trinamool Congress was projected to secure between 125 and 140 seats.

Taken together, the projections pointed towards a significant BJP surge in West Bengal, suggesting that the party’s years-long push to expand its organisational base in the state may have translated into major electoral gains. However, with Bengal’s elections historically known for producing unpredictable outcomes and exit polls occasionally diverging sharply from final results, all eyes will now be on counting day to see whether the projections hold.

Only, the People’s Pulse exit poll projected a strong lead for the ruling Trinamool Congress, indicating that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s party could retain power with a comfortable majority in the 294-member Assembly. The survey projected the TMC to win between 177 and 187 seats, well above the halfway mark of 148 required to form the government.

Assam Exit Polls live updates

In Assam, the Axis My India exit poll indicated a decisive advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance, both in terms of seats and vote share. The survey projected the NDA to secure between 88 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably above the halfway mark of 64 needed to form the government.

The vote share estimates also pointed to a significant lead for the ruling alliance. According to the exit poll, the BJP and its allies are projected to secure around 48% of the vote, while the Congress-led opposition alliance is estimated at 38%. The gap suggests that despite an aggressive campaign mounted by the opposition, the BJP may have succeeded in consolidating support across key regions of the state.

If reflected in the final results, the numbers would mark another strong performance for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and the BJP in Assam, where the party has steadily expanded its organisational and electoral dominance over the past decade. The Congress, meanwhile, appears to have improved its presence in pockets but not enough, according to the projections, to seriously threaten the NDA’s position statewide.

Tamil Nadu Exit Polls live updates

After weeks of high-voltage campaigning and one of the highest voter turnouts in Tamil Nadu’s recent electoral history, exit polls released on Wednesday projected a second straight term for the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, with Chief Minister M.K. Stalin appearing set to retain power.

Most early projections gave the DMK alliance a clear edge in the 234-member Assembly, estimating its tally at around 138 to 142 seats — comfortably above the majority mark of 118. While the ruling alliance appeared ahead statewide, the AIADMK-led front was projected to remain competitive in several pockets, particularly in northern Tamil Nadu and the politically crucial Kongu belt, preventing the contest from becoming entirely one-sided.

Actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), contesting independently across all 234 constituencies, was not projected to emerge as a major seat-winner but is expected to make an impact through vote share. Exit polls estimated the party could secure between 5% and 8% of the vote, particularly among younger and first-time voters, potentially influencing results in tightly contested seats. The final results of the Tamil Nadu Assembly election will be declared on May 4.

Kerala Exit Polls live updates

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is projected to return to power in Kerala after a decade in opposition, with multiple exit polls indicating a clear edge over Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). The projections suggest a potentially significant political shift in a state known for its fiercely competitive bipolar politics and frequent alternation of power between the two alliances.

Most surveys indicated that the LDF could lose ground after two consecutive terms in office, while the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to remain a marginal player despite an aggressive campaign aimed at expanding its footprint in the state.

According to the Matrize exit poll, the UDF is projected to win between 70 and 75 seats in the 140-member Assembly, while the LDF is estimated at 60 to 65 seats and the NDA at three to five. People’s Pulse projected a stronger performance for the Congress-led alliance, estimating the UDF’s tally between 75 and 85 seats, compared to 55 to 65 for the LDF and zero to three for the NDA.

Axis My India also projected a comfortable victory for the UDF, estimating the alliance’s tally between 78 and 90 seats. The survey projected the LDF to secure between 49 and 62 seats, while the NDA was estimated at zero to three seats.

The exit poll projections were released by television news channels and digital platforms after polling concluded, in accordance with Election Commission guidelines.