India is likely to receive below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026, with precipitation estimated at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its long-range forecast.
The projection carries a model error margin of ±5%, with the LPA for the June–September season pegged at 87 cm based on the 1971–2020 period. Rainfall below 96% of the LPA is classified as “below normal.”
Spatially, below-normal rainfall is expected over large parts of the country, although some regions in the northeast, northwest and south peninsular India are likely to receive normal to above-normal precipitation.
Also Read: IMD issues 'orange alert' in north Kerala as rains bring relief from heat
The southwest monsoon, which typically sets in over Kerala around June 1 and withdraws by mid-September, is crucial for India’s agriculture, irrigating nearly half of the country’s farmland. A weaker monsoon could impact production of rain-fed crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds, while also fuelling food inflation and dampening rural demand.
The IMD said El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are likely to prevail during April to June 2026, with El Niño conditions expected to develop during the monsoon season — a factor that typically suppresses rainfall over India.
At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail, with a positive phase likely to emerge towards the latter part of the monsoon. A positive IOD is considered favourable for rainfall and could partly offset the adverse impact of El Niño.
The weather office also noted that Northern Hemisphere and Eurasian snow cover between January and March 2026 was slightly below normal — a factor that is generally favourable for the subsequent southwest monsoon.
Also Read: Dual risks of monsoon deficit and rising input costs threaten India's rural economy in 2026: Report
A below-normal monsoon in 2026 would be the first in three years, and the outlook will be closely tracked by policymakers and markets for its implications on crop output, inflation and overall economic growth.
The IMD is expected to issue an updated forecast for the monsoon in the last week of May.
The projection carries a model error margin of ±5%, with the LPA for the June–September season pegged at 87 cm based on the 1971–2020 period. Rainfall below 96% of the LPA is classified as “below normal.”
Spatially, below-normal rainfall is expected over large parts of the country, although some regions in the northeast, northwest and south peninsular India are likely to receive normal to above-normal precipitation.
Also Read: IMD issues 'orange alert' in north Kerala as rains bring relief from heat
The southwest monsoon, which typically sets in over Kerala around June 1 and withdraws by mid-September, is crucial for India’s agriculture, irrigating nearly half of the country’s farmland. A weaker monsoon could impact production of rain-fed crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds, while also fuelling food inflation and dampening rural demand.
The IMD said El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are likely to prevail during April to June 2026, with El Niño conditions expected to develop during the monsoon season — a factor that typically suppresses rainfall over India.
Terclie probability rainfall forecast for 2026 southwest monsoon season
At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail, with a positive phase likely to emerge towards the latter part of the monsoon. A positive IOD is considered favourable for rainfall and could partly offset the adverse impact of El Niño.
The weather office also noted that Northern Hemisphere and Eurasian snow cover between January and March 2026 was slightly below normal — a factor that is generally favourable for the subsequent southwest monsoon.
Also Read: Dual risks of monsoon deficit and rising input costs threaten India's rural economy in 2026: Report
A below-normal monsoon in 2026 would be the first in three years, and the outlook will be closely tracked by policymakers and markets for its implications on crop output, inflation and overall economic growth.
The IMD is expected to issue an updated forecast for the monsoon in the last week of May.
