A rare climate event known as a 'Super El Niño' is looming, and if forecasts are accurate, it could be the most intense in 140 years, bringing severe droughts, as well as heavy rainfall, in several areas of the world. El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. And weather experts believe a super El Niño may develop later this year, with US agency NOAA calculating a 61% chance of the weather phenomenon happening sometime from May through July.
Paul Roundy, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany, said it has "real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years". While the American continent and the Pacific Ocean would be impacted the most by the phenomenon, its potential to influence global temperatures increases the likelihood of unusual weather patterns in the UK too. El Niño is likely to bring milder, wetter conditions across parts of northern Europe as it influences broader global weather patterns.
For the UK, this could mean more changeable and unusual weather, including periods of unseasonable warmth as well as spells of heavy rain.
It may also shift Atlantic storm tracks, potentially affecting the development, intensity, and where the storms hit.
El Niño can trigger wildfires in some regions and droughts in others. It occurs when Pacific trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to move eastward instead of being pushed west.
This leads to higher sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific, which disrupts normal ocean conditions and causes weather patterns to shift globally.
With the potential to influence global temperatures it has the likelihood to increase unusual weather patterns in the UK.
A typical El Niño is declared when ocean temperatures are 0.5C above average. A Super El Niño is when temperatures exceed 2C above normal,speeding up the pace of global warming. speeding up the pace of global warming.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has calculated a 25% probability that El Niño could strengthen into a super El Niño by autumn or early winter.
"We will likely see at least a moderate El Niño, but more likely a strong El Niño," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill.
Although it is due to hit later this year peak global temperatures connected to it have a higher possibilty of emerging next year.
These powerful El Niños are rare, with just five recorded since 1950. The most recent super El Niño took place 11 years ago during 2015-16.
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