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Hours before truce, traders placed bets worth $950M on a crude fall
Reuters | April 10, 2026 3:57 AM CST

Synopsis

Investors made a massive $950 million bet on oil prices dropping. This happened just hours before the US and Iran announced a ceasefire. The move followed a similar large wager before a previous Trump announcement. Such big bets are unusual, especially when executed late in trading. The market reacted significantly to both events.

London: Investors placed an approximately $950 million bet on oil prices falling just hours before the US and Iran announced a ceasefire, the latest large wager on the direction of the world's most traded commodity ahead of a major policy announcement by President Donald Trump.

On Tuesday, investors sold a combined 8,600 lots of Brent and US crude futures at 1945 GMT, according to LSEG data. At around 2230 GMT on Tuesday, Trump stepped back from threatening the destruction of "a whole civilization" and announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, knocking crude futures down by some 15% to below $100 a barrel at the start of Wednesday's official trading session.

Also Read: My way or no waterway: Traffic remains blocked at Hormuz; Iran opens 2 routes


Taking large positions on oil prices rising or falling is not unusual as traders use them to hedge large volumes of physical oil trade.

But such deals are very rarely done in big lots, as traders prefer to use sweeping orders across many exchanges and ask brokers to use algorithmic trading over many hours to execute the order to avoid impacting prices with their bets. Large orders also are seldom executed after settlement, which happens Monday to Friday at 1830 GMT.

The bet follows similar moves on March 23, when investors sold $500 million in oil futures just 15 minutes before an announcement by Trump that he would delay attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, which stunned markets and then triggered a 15% drop in the crude price.

Also Read: Iran announces alternative routes in Hormuz strait

In Tuesday's trading, some 6,200 lots of Brent futures changed hands at 19: 45 GMT, roughly 1% of the total volume traded in the day's regular session.


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