New Delhi: India is expected to get below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026 as the El Nino weather pattern would weigh on precipitation in the second half of the June-September season, said private weather forecaster Skymet, sparking concerns about crop output, consumption, and inflation.
Rainfall is expected to be 6% below normal or 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of around 817 mm for the four-month-long season.
Rainfall in June is projected at 101% of LPA, falling to 95% in July, according to Skymet. In August, it would decline further to 92% of LPA, weakening to 89% in the subsequent month. India's eastern and northeastern regions would get above-normal monsoon rains, though northern, western and central parts of the country would experience below-normal rains, according to Skymet. Southern peninsula is expected to get normal rains.
El Nino is the periodic warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean. This year, El Nino, known to trigger deficient monsoon rains in India, is expected to set in only during the second half of the season.
Projections could Get Revised
This year, El Niño, typically known to trigger deficient monsoon rains in India, is expected to set in only during the second half of the season, offering some relief and boosting hopes for good crop planting.
Erratic monsoons due to El Niño conditions in 2023, reduced India’s foodgrain production by 6.1% in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June).
Official weather forecaster India Meteorological Department (IMD) is likely to issue its first forecast for the monsoon season next week.
Economists pointed out that while the predictions are early and they tend to get revised, intertemporal performance — June-July versus August-September — and spatial distribution have a stronger bearing on crop production and demand sentiment.
Rainfall matters most during the sowing window in June-July, they said.
Yuvika Singhal, India economist at QuantEco Research, said the monsoon projections may be early but they come against the backdrop of the West Asia war which could impact fertiliser availability and broader inflation trends in India.
Rainfall is expected to be 6% below normal or 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of around 817 mm for the four-month-long season.
Rainfall in June is projected at 101% of LPA, falling to 95% in July, according to Skymet. In August, it would decline further to 92% of LPA, weakening to 89% in the subsequent month. India's eastern and northeastern regions would get above-normal monsoon rains, though northern, western and central parts of the country would experience below-normal rains, according to Skymet. Southern peninsula is expected to get normal rains.
El Nino is the periodic warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean. This year, El Nino, known to trigger deficient monsoon rains in India, is expected to set in only during the second half of the season.
Projections could Get Revised
This year, El Niño, typically known to trigger deficient monsoon rains in India, is expected to set in only during the second half of the season, offering some relief and boosting hopes for good crop planting.
Erratic monsoons due to El Niño conditions in 2023, reduced India’s foodgrain production by 6.1% in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June).
Official weather forecaster India Meteorological Department (IMD) is likely to issue its first forecast for the monsoon season next week.
Economists pointed out that while the predictions are early and they tend to get revised, intertemporal performance — June-July versus August-September — and spatial distribution have a stronger bearing on crop production and demand sentiment.
Rainfall matters most during the sowing window in June-July, they said.
Yuvika Singhal, India economist at QuantEco Research, said the monsoon projections may be early but they come against the backdrop of the West Asia war which could impact fertiliser availability and broader inflation trends in India.
