Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Warning: The impact of the ongoing conflict between America and Iran is once again being seen on the global markets. Amid growing uncertainty over oil supplies in the Middle East Brent Crude It has again reached around 100 dollars per barrel. Meanwhile the legendary American investment bank Goldman SachsIt has warned that crude oil prices could reach $120 per barrel if the situation worsens.
Brent Crude touched the level of $100.19 per barrel during trading on September 9, 2026, while the US WTI Crude It reached about 94.52 dollars per barrel. Rising tensions in the Middle East and the threat of attacks on supply routes have boosted oil prices again.
What did Goldman Sachs warn?
According to Daan Struyven, co-head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, crude oil prices could go up to $120 a barrel if attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East increase and oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted. However, Goldman Sachs has presented another possibility with this. If the situation in the region normalizes and oil exports return to normal levels, the price of crude oil may fall to around $80. So the $120 figure is not a definitive prediction, but a hazard estimate for the worst case scenario.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz important?
The Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman is one of the world’s most important oil transport routes. In normal times, about one-fifth of the world’s total oil supply passes through this route. After the start of the US-Iran conflict, there is great uncertainty in the movement of ships and oil supply through this route. According to the latest data, the number of commodity vessels passing through Hormuz is also being recorded lower than usual.
Why India may get a big blow?
India depends on imports for most of its crude oil requirements. Therefore, if crude oil becomes expensive in the international market, India’s oil import bill may increase directly. The first pressure of higher crude prices is seen on dollar demand and rupee. On September 9, the rupee even crossed the 95 level against the US dollar. Rising crude prices are seen as a key factor in the pressure on the rupee. After this, its impact can reach many levels of the economy.
If petroleum products and transportation become more expensive, the cost of moving goods from one place to another may increase. Aviation turbine fuel costs may increase for airlines. Raw material costs of paints, chemicals, plastics and other petroleum-based industries may also increase. This increased cost, if passed on to consumers by companies, could lead to inflation and, if borne by companies themselves, could put pressure on the companies’ profit margins.
Why the possibility of a big fall in the stock market?
Inflation may increase if crude goes up to 120 dollars. For an oil import-dependent country like India, it can spoil the market sentiment. The room for the RBI to cut interest rates may decrease if inflation is expected to rise. If input costs of companies increase, rupee weakens and foreign investors reduce risk, the stock market may come under pressure from several directions.
Expensive crude could be negative, especially for aviation, logistics, paints, chemicals, tires and some consumer sectors. On the other hand, higher crude prices can be beneficial for oil and gas producing companies in some situations.
Crude oil crossed $126 in April
After the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February 2026, crude oil witnessed a major upheaval. Crude oil’s near-term futures contract hit $126.41 a barrel on April 30, 2026, a nearly four-year high. After that the price was reduced again. Now, in September, the discussion has started as to whether the situation like April will be created again as the crude oil reaches above 100 dollars again.
