This is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable Premier League seasons in recent years. Nine clubs — Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Ipswich and Newcastle — are starting the campaign under new managers, while Michael Carrick at Manchester United and Roberto De Zerbi at Tottenham Hotspur are beginning their first full season in charge. With so much upheaval, it becomes even harder to judge how certain teams will line up at the start of the season, or how players who impressed last year will be used in a different system.
There are only 33 days between the World Cup final and the start of the Premier League season. England players such as Arsenal’s Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka only rejoined their clubs a couple of weeks before the new campaign and may need to be introduced gradually over the opening few matches. Erling Haaland is usually quick out of the blocks — he has twice reached 10 goals after only six games — but what effect will a run to the World Cup quarter-finals with Norway, along with a shortened pre-season, have on the Manchester City forward?
Erling Haaland only returned to pre-season training last week.
Settling into a new club or a new league can take time. Liverpool’s Florian Wirtz is the clearest example of a player who arrived for a huge fee and amid major expectations last summer, only to struggle with the pace and physical demands of the Premier League. Morgan Rogers is the biggest signing of this summer, but although he already has Premier League experience and excelled at Aston Villa last season, it may still be a risk to throw him straight in before seeing exactly how he functions under Xabi Alonso at Chelsea.
Manchester United were in outstanding form in the second half of last season under Michael Carrick, but the Premier League was the only competition they were involved in. How will United manage a more demanding schedule this year, and what effect will Champions League football have on players such as Bruno Fernandes? Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Sunderland also face a tougher calendar because they are in the Europa League, while Brighton will be competing in the Conference League.
By contrast, Chelsea and Tottenham are not involved in Europe this season, so Xabi Alonso and Roberto De Zerbi will have more time on the training ground to prepare for matches and can also give their players longer recovery periods between games. Both Chelsea and Tottenham should be aiming to improve significantly on last season’s finishes of 10th and 17th respectively.
De Zerbi will have time to shape Tottenham in line with his preferred high-intensity approach.
Since Arsenal’s previous Premier League title in 2004, only three managers have guided their team to a successful title defence: Jose Mourinho, Sir Alex Ferguson and Pep Guardiola. A drop in intensity, performance and results is often difficult to avoid, and Arsenal could be vulnerable to that after such a physically and emotionally draining end to last season — just look at how exhausted Declan Rice was at the World Cup. Arsenal may begin the season as favourites, but last year they also depended heavily on set-pieces and clean sheets. Any decline in either area could trigger a broader downturn, while the absence of William Saliba for the opening few months is another concern.
Declan Rice may be eased into the new season.
After beginning the season priced at £5.5m, Elliot Anderson turned into one of the best players in the game last year. By regularly collecting defensive contribution points through tackles, blocks and recoveries in midfield, and also adding the occasional attacking return, Anderson quietly finished the campaign with the fifth-highest points total among midfielders. He then starred for England at the World Cup and sealed a £116m move to Manchester City.
Anderson’s price has now risen to £6.5m, but will he be the same kind of player at Manchester City — who topped the Premier League for average possession — as he was at Nottingham Forest, who ranked 18th? While City’s dominance of the ball could help Anderson show off his creativity and passing range, he is unlikely to produce as many defensive contribution points as he did at Forest because City are expected to control most matches.
Anderson’s position and role are expected to be adjusted following his club switch.
After two straight seasons in which all three promoted clubs went straight back down, Sunderland were a welcome change last year. From an FPL point of view, Sunderland players also offered excellent value, especially in defence, with Nordi Mukiele reaching 151 points despite starting the season at the lowest possible price of £4.0m. The gap between the Championship and the Premier League remains significant, but that does not mean Coventry, Ipswich and Hull should be ignored.
FPL managers receive two sets of chips — made up of wildcard, bench boost and triple captain — to use during the season. The first set has to be used before gameweek 19 or players will lose them. It can be tempting to hold on to these chips, but using them early in the season — particularly after a World Cup and with so many teams looking unpredictable — could be a smart strategy this year. Picking your squad from the outset to enable a bench boost in gameweek one or gameweek two could then be followed by an early wildcard, while an early triple captain or free hit could be used to target fixtures such as Manchester City v Coventry in gameweek three or Chelsea v Hull in gameweek four.
Chelsea’s Joao Pedro is a popular pick among FPL managers.
Changes to BPS — which awards up to three players per match extra points based on their overall statistical output — have been introduced to favour wingers, attacking full-backs and goalkeepers, while the earning potential for centre-backs has been reduced slightly.
International breaks will look different this season. For the first time, the September and October breaks are being merged, which means there will be a three-week gap in Premier League action between Sunday 20 September and Saturday 10 October, falling between Premier League gameweek five and gameweek six. National teams will play up to four matches during this period instead of the usual two.
A longer break, combined with more matches, means there is a greater chance of players returning from international duty with injuries. With that in mind, it may be sensible to keep some free transfers in hand before the Premier League resumes in gameweek six, or even think about using an early wildcard. There will then be a normal international break in November, between gameweek 10 and gameweek 11.
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