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Do not be surprised if Arsenal manage to sign Vinicius Jr — the signs have been visible for some time.

Arsenal are no strangers to ambitious transfer pursuits. Nor is the club unfamiliar with the idea of prising a marquee player away from Real Madrid.

Mesut Ozil showed that when he joined the Gunners from Los Blancos in 2013 for a then club-record £42.5 million. That was also an era when Arsenal were regularly linked with Karim Benzema and Sami Khedira. The Gunners were also said to have more than just a casual interest in Kylian Mbappe when he burst onto the scene, while Luis Suarez’s release clause was famously triggered as well.

Seeing Vinicius Jr at Emirates Stadium would be a landmark moment. Seeing him linked with Arsenal, however, is not especially unusual if you look at the past 15 years. But seeing Mikel Arteta’s side so heavily involved in a saga concerning such an elite talent? That says a great deal.

Arsene Wenger had a few familiar lines, and one of the biggest was the hindsight-laden suggestion that Arsenal could quite easily have signed almost every elite player in world football.

Cristiano Ronaldo was on the radar before Manchester United beat them to him. Zlatan Ibrahimovic had a trial. Lionel Messi was part of the Barcelona group Wenger watched when he eventually signed Cesc Fabregas. Arsenal supporters used to be frustrated by how many superstars the club missed out on — and by how willing their manager was to acknowledge it.

But although Arsenal very publicly failed to get deals done for players such as Eden Hazard, N’Golo Kante, Gonzalo Higuain and others, the situation is different now. Mikel Arteta did suffer setbacks in pursuits for the likes of Dusan Vlahovic and Lisandro Martinez, but since the Gunners returned to the Champions League, they have not really been part of these high-profile transfer stories unless matters are genuinely advanced.

These days, Arsenal’s name does not often crop up in bidding wars. They were not in the picture when Jude Bellingham left Borussia Dortmund, when Alexander Isak moved to Liverpool, or when Bernardo Silva joined Real Madrid this summer — despite long-standing reported interest in all three.

Instead, the players strongly linked with Arsenal in recent times have usually been ones where significant groundwork had already been done. Mykhailo Mudryk was described as “singularly focused” on Arsenal before eventually turning towards Chelsea. Moises Caicedo posted a farewell message to Brighton supporters after Arsenal made bids. An agreement with Benjamin Sesko, meanwhile, was not the problem: Arsenal only turned to Viktor Gyokeres once it became clear that RB Leipzig would not shift enough on their valuation. It was a similar pattern this summer with both Jeremy Monga and Morgan Rogers.

To be clear, Arsenal have not suddenly begun signing every player they target, and those five names mentioned above prove that. What it does indicate, though, is that Arteta only really pushes for players who actively want Arsenal.

This is not a case like Raphinha in 2022, where Arsenal would simply put in an offer to Real Madrid for Vinicius Jr and hope something happened. They are not being led on here. Even if Vini ultimately stays at Real, his camp have given Arsenal strong signals that he is considering the move — otherwise, this situation simply would not have progressed this far.

Vinicius Jr is one of the finest players in the world right now. The natural reaction from supporters is that Real Madrid do not let players of that level leave.

Except they do — and they have done so for quite some time. Real were willing to allow Cristiano Ronaldo to join Juventus for an enormous fee, in one of the most startling transfers involving a player over 30 in the last decade. They sanctioned Ozil’s move to Arsenal. They also allowed Angel Di Maria to leave for Manchester United.

They accepted an offer that was too good to turn down when United came in for Casemiro. The same can be said of Raphael Varane. Karim Benzema might have stayed another year or two — and perhaps Sergio Ramos as well — had there not been interest from elsewhere. President Florentino Perez understands that sentimentality is a weakness usually found on the losing side.

Of course, Vinicius Jr is still at his peak — perhaps even moving into the very best years of his career — and Real are in a difficult position for several reasons. They run the risk of losing the Brazilian for free next summer if they keep him without securing his commitment to a new contract. They are not accustomed to players in their prime seriously contemplating a move to the Premier League. And whatever their usual approach, there will be hesitation about selling a player who has scored in two Champions League finals after two trophyless seasons.

Jose Mourinho will probably want to keep hold of his No.7, but there is almost certainly an awareness within the 15-time European champions that carrying two passengers in an aggressive high press — the other being Kylian Mbappe — has hindered Real over the past couple of seasons. The Bernabeu is home to two world-class left-sided forwards, and if one of them is to leave, it is unlikely to be Mbappe.

Arsenal won the Premier League without a ruthless attacking focal point. They also reached the Champions League final while conceding only a very small number of open-play goals. They are not the best all-round side in Europe, but defensively they are comfortably the best.

And that goes beyond the central defensive pairing of Gabriel and William Saliba. It is about more than Declan Rice protecting the back four and full-backs who are defenders first by nature: Arteta demands relentless work from his forwards too.

Arsenal do not have an Erling Haaland-type figure. Instead, Viktor Gyokeres and Kai Havertz are tireless runners who press, sustain intensity and are prepared to exhaust themselves for the team. Gabriel Martinelli and Noni Madueke, likewise, are not especially prolific, but they bring the required work rate. Even Martin Odegaard is far removed from being a luxury No.10, with his value to Arteta measured not just by creativity but by how he leads the side when they are out of possession.

As badly as Arsenal need a superstar on the left wing to improve their balance, produce moments from nothing and provide a spark in games such as one against Paris Saint-Germain, there is clear risk attached. This is a finely tuned team that attacks and defends collectively, creates many chances from winning the ball high up the pitch, and has a humility within the squad that allows goals to be shared around and ensures major injuries to key players do not cause too dramatic a fall in the level of performance.

Vinicius Jr could disrupt that. Without the ball, he is not a typical Arteta player. Arsenal would need to adapt to him just as he would need to adapt to Arsenal. Everyone understands that much, even if nobody can be fully sure to what degree. Bringing in a player of Vini’s quality would be a calculated gamble, but Arteta would be aiming to succeed where a coach of a similar mould in Xabi Alonso did not.

Still, Arteta has integrated superstars into his side before. It is sometimes forgotten that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang gave him hard work out of possession before their relationship broke down. Even Ebere Eze and Gyokeres have had to improve enormously in what they do without the ball.

So do not be shocked if this move is advanced. And do not be shocked if Vinicius has already bought into Arsenal — both in terms of the transfer itself and the tactical fit. After all, this is a very different Arsenal from the one that signed Mesut Ozil all those years ago.