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• The reported guarantees from Nvidia would help the ChatGPT maker lease a 10-gigawatt project being developed by a unit of SoftBank in southern Ohio.
• ORCL stock is down 54% from its 2026 high on June 1 and 65% from its peak last September, making its valuation increasingly attractive.
• Stocktwits sentiment for ORCL was ‘bullish’ on Sunday.

Oracle Corp.’s stock rose 1.4% in overnight trading late Sunday and was the most-discussed ticker among retail traders on Stocktwits after a report said Nvidia was in talks to backstop a major OpenAI data center project. 

OpenAI is one of Oracle’s largest new customers, making the potential development a major tailwind for both companies. Oracle shares have faced pressure in recent months as investors scrutinize the mounting debt the company has taken on to build out data center capacity, much of it to support the cloud contracts with OpenAI.

Nvidia In Talks To Back OpenAI

The Wall Street Journal reported Nvidia was in talks to provide a roughly $250 billion backstop for OpenAI as part of a massive data-center project.

The guarantees from Nvidia would help the ChatGPT maker lease a 10-gigawatt project being developed by a unit of SoftBank in southern Ohio, the Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

The ​power for the project is controlled by the U.S. government and funded separately by Japan under a ​recent trade deal, with U.S. Commerce Secretary ​Howard Lutnick involved in deciding who will receive access ‌to ⁠it, the reported added.

Nvidia’s backing would allow the SoftBank unit to raise debt at more favorable terms than it could if OpenAI had no financial backer, since OpenAI has no investment-grade credit rating as an unprofitable private company, the report said.

OpenAI is among the companies that have shown most interest in the site, while Anthropic, Microsoft and Google have also spoken to Lutnick about it in recent weeks, the report added.

ORCL: Compelling Opportunity Or Risky Bet?

Oracle presents a compelling mix of opportunity and risk in the AI market, Stocktwits reported in an explainer on July 17.

The stock is down 54% from its 2026 high on June 1 and 65% from its peak last September, making its valuation increasingly attractive. However, the pace at which the company has been piling on debt to fund new AI capacity – much of it tied to recently won business from OpenAI, whose competitive positioning and delayed IPO have come under scrutiny – has sharply increased Oracle’s risk profile.

In that sense, Oracle’s future depends not only on its ability to execute – such as bringing additional cloud capacity online in a timely manner – but also on factors beyond its control. The second-quarter tech earnings, which are underway, would also have an impact on sentiment around AI and cloud, and potentially on Oracle’s stock as well.

Investors, Analysts React To Oracle’s Position

In fact, Oracle’s stock has slid for three sessions straight, losing about 10%, even after the company reported a major $7 billion software contract win from the U.S. Department of Defense last Thursday.

S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle to BBB- on July 9, just a notch above junk, citing its rapidly growing AI-related spending. Oracle's five-year credit default swaps (CDS) have more than quadrupled since mid-2025 to a record about 203 basis points, meaning more investors expect Oracle to default on its loan, according to The Kobeissi Letter.

Meanwhile, the Nvidia-OpenAI report drew a response from ace investor and Nvidia short Michael Burry. “Around and around we go. Nvidia to guarantee $200 billion of ChatGPT’s spending on $NVDA chips,” Burry wrote in an X post, referring to concerns of AI and cloud companies inking circular financing deals which some say significantly increase risks in the AI ecosystem.

Retail View On ORCL

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ORCL was ‘bullish,’ unchanged from the previous day.

“$ORCL I am dreaming—If Jensen Huang or Elon Musk announce they would fully support Oracle’s data center expansion and provide financing guarantees, the stock could be back to $200 within three trading days,” a trader said, forecasting the stock nearly doubling.

Another wrote: “$ORCL one thing the market seems to agree on: if OpenAI wins, Oracle wins.”

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