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21 July 2026

Following Spain’s dramatic victory over Argentina to lift the World Cup trophy, the battle for football’s most coveted individual honour, the Ballon d’Or, is now reaching its decisive phase.

Lamine Yamal and Rodri, who previously claimed the award in 2024, have become central figures for the newly crowned world champions. Their outstanding performances on the biggest stage have given them a clear advantage over other contenders after securing the sport’s ultimate team triumph.

However, several other names remain firmly in the race. Lionel Messi, despite being 39 years old, guided Argentina to a second consecutive final. Although he narrowly missed out on the Golden Ball to Rodri during FIFA’s post-final awards ceremony, his influence remains immense. Meanwhile, current Ballon d’Or holder Ousmane Dembele continues to feature among the favourites after leading Paris Saint-Germain to consecutive Champions League triumphs. At the same time, The Independent’s Miguel Delaney had earlier argued that Yamal was the more deserving winner.

Harry Kane is also a strong contender and currently leads the odds. The England captain has carried his excellent form from Bayern Munich into the international arena, scoring six goals this summer and becoming his nation’s all-time top scorer in World Cup history.

Below are the latest odds and leading contenders for football’s most prestigious individual accolade, with the award ceremony scheduled to take place in London on 26 October:

Harry Kane: 13/8

Lamine Yamal: 9/4

Lionel Messi: 11/4

Kylian Mbappe: 7/2

Rodri: 9/2

Ousmane Dembele: 14/1

Jude Bellingham: 14/1

Michael Olise: 20/1

Erling Haaland: 22/1

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: 28/1

Declan Rice: 28/1

Vitinha: 28/1

Fabian Ruiz: 33/1