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India's growth forecast revised to 6.6% amid oil price concerns
09 Jul 2026

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised India's growth forecast for the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6.6%, down from its earlier estimate of 6.9% in April.

The revision comes as higher oil prices and transportation costs are seen to be affecting consumer sentiment and private demand, according to ADB's latest Asian Development Outlook report.

Growth forecast for FY28 remains at 7.3%
Future outlook

Despite the downward revision for FY27, ADB has kept its growth forecast for the following fiscal year (FY28) at 7.3%.

The bank expects this growth to be supported by policy measures aimed at attracting foreign investment, fuel tax cuts, targeted credit support, strong services exports, and public capital expenditure.

However, it also warned of potential risks from geopolitical tensions or weather-related agricultural challenges.

ADB raises India's inflation forecast
Inflation predictions

Along with the growth forecast, ADB has also revised its inflation prediction for India.

The bank has raised its FY26 inflation forecast to 5.2%, up from 4.5% earlier.

This change is attributed to higher oil prices, a weaker rupee, and rising food prices due to heatwaves and the waning impact of favorable base effects.

For South Asia as a whole, ADB has cut its growth projection for 2026 by 0.3% points to 6%.