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Delimitation, defections and cabinet reshuffle speculation dominate Parliament’s upcoming monsoon session.

The Monsoon Session of Parliament, commencing on July 20, promises to be significant in many respects. The session will run until August 13. The atmosphere both inside and outside Parliament will appear completely transformed during this session, with many MPs who were once vocal critics of the BJP now expected to be seen hailing Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The parliamentary landscape has shifted dramatically within just two years of the formation of the 18th Lok Sabha. For the first time in parliamentary history, the ruling party and its alliance are poised to reach a strength nearing a two-thirds majority in both Houses of Parliament. The NDA has already nearly secured a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha, and the BJP appears to be successfully working towards achieving a similar majority in the Lok Sabha.

A two-thirds majority in both Houses would enable the government to easily pass bills requiring constitutional amendments. Prime Minister Modi aims to pass the delimitation amendment bill linked to the legislation providing 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies. Passage of this bill would allow the government to undertake the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies based on the 2011 Census data.

The 2029 general elections would then be held under the new delimitation framework, featuring an expanded Lok Sabha of 850 seats. Within this arrangement, 33% of the seats in every state would be reserved for women and allocated through a draw of lots.

During the Monsoon Session, all eyes will be on whether the government can successfully introduce and pass the Delimitation Bill, as the arithmetic in the Lok Sabha still requires some manoeuvring. If the government manages to pass the bill in both Houses, it would mark a major political achievement for Prime Minister Modi.

The opposition, which two years ago dreamt of toppling the NDA government, has itself fragmented. In this context, the question arises: will Prime Minister Modi reshuffle his team before this historic milestone? There is considerable speculation, though past predictions have often failed to materialise. At present, the prevailing view is that a reshuffle could take place before the parliamentary session begins.

Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to visit three countries from July 6 to July 11, leaving only the period between July 12 and July 24 available. The Monsoon Session is set to commence on July 20. Furthermore, the Chaturmas period—during which auspicious activities are traditionally avoided—begins on July 25. Prime Minister Modi had previously carried out a minor reshuffle in May 2023, transferring the Law Ministry from Kiren Rijiju to Arjun Meghwal. While a minor expansion or adjustment could take place during the session or a week prior, the crucial question is whether the three-day window from July 12 to July 14 would suffice for a comprehensive reshuffle and expansion.

If Prime Minister Modi intends to undertake a major overhaul, three or four days would be insufficient, yet political observers continue to insist that changes are imminent. Speculation suggests possible changes across key ministries, including Finance, External Affairs, Defence, Education, Petroleum and Road Transport.

Historically, predictions regarding Prime Minister Modi’s decisions have rarely proven accurate.

The changes this time are not limited to the Union Cabinet alone. New governors are to be appointed and a new BJP national executive committee is expected to be constituted. Space must also be created for MPs joining from other parties, particularly to ensure the passage of constitutional amendment bills.

The situation is therefore more complex than it appears on the surface. However, aspirants believe a major shake-up is imminent, aimed at rehabilitating the tarnished image of certain ministers and diverting public attention from issues such as paper leaks and the theft at the Ayodhya Ram Mandir.

It is also worth noting that if a strategy akin to the ‘Kamaraj Plan’ is adopted, some state chief ministers could also face the axe. If a reshuffle similar to the one carried out on July 7, 2021, is on the cards, a window of three to four days would suffice. The Prime Minister could execute such changes between July 12 and July 15, just as he did in 2021, when more than a dozen ministers were dropped from the government.

A school of thought suggests that replicating a Bengal-style victory in Uttar Pradesh could further weaken the opposition. Political observers believe that a massive BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh would trigger splits within both the Samajwadi Party and the Congress.

The Congress party already appears to be fracturing ahead of the Punjab elections. Following successive defeats, several leaders are likely to seek safer political havens, and Rahul Gandhi’s leadership could face an open challenge.

It is worth recalling that after the Congress’ defeat in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the Gandhi family faced internal dissent, which was quelled only when the then Rajasthan Chief Minister, Ashok Gehlot, stepped in to rein in the detractors.