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Alpha Box Office Prediction: One of the most anticipated Bollywood releases of the year, Alpha, is gearing up for its theatrical debut on Friday. However, the film’s advance booking numbers have raised eyebrows within the trade, with pre-sales falling short of expectations for a title backed by the YRF Spy Universe. Advance bookings for the film opened only on Wednesday afternoon, leaving it with a relatively short booking window before release. According to industry tracking platform Sacnilk, Alpha had sold around 12,000 tickets across India by Thursday morning, generating a little over Rs 40 lakh in advance bookings. Even after factoring in weekend pre-sales, the total remains modest compared to other recent franchise releases.

On ticketing platform BookMyShow, the film was reportedly selling around 1,300 tickets per hour by Thursday morning, a pace that trade observers believe is underwhelming for a big-budget action entertainer carrying the YRF Spy Universe brand.

Opening day prediction revised downward

The sluggish advance-booking trend has prompted trade analysts to revise their opening-day expectations. Until last week, several exhibitors believed Alpha could open in the high single digits, with estimates hovering between Rs 8 crore and Rs 10 crore net. However, the latest booking trend has significantly altered projections. Current trade estimates now suggest the film could collect anywhere between Rs 4.5 crore and Rs 6 crore on its opening day in India, although spot bookings and positive word-of-mouth after the first shows could still influence the final number.

If these estimates hold, Alpha would record the lowest opening among films in the YRF Spy Universe, which includes blockbuster titles like Ek Tha Tiger, Tiger Zinda Hai, War, Pathaan and Tiger 3. Industry experts, however, note that comparisons may not be entirely fair, as Alpha is the franchise’s first female-led standalone film rather than a sequel featuring established spy characters.

Can positive reviews change the film’s fortunes?

Despite the muted pre-sales, trade insiders believe Alpha still has room to recover over the weekend if audiences respond positively. Alia Bhatt has previously delivered content-driven hits such as Raazi and Gangubai Kathiawadi, both of which benefited from strong word-of-mouth. The YRF Spy Universe has also built a loyal audience over the years, making weekend growth a realistic possibility if the film connects with viewers.

Directed by Shiv Rawail, Alpha stars Alia Bhatt and Sharvari in the lead roles, with Anil Kapoor and Bobby Deol playing pivotal characters. The film marks the first female-led chapter in Yash Raj Films’ ambitious interconnected spy universe and is expected to feature high-octane action, globe-trotting missions and franchise crossovers. Whether Alpha can overcome its slow advance booking trend will become clear once audience reactions begin pouring in after the first day of release.