Germany belong to that rare group of national teams for whom failure is never an acceptable outcome. For a side carrying four World Cup stars above their crest, falling short simply isn’t part of the vocabulary.
For Germany, the only real measure of success is lifting the trophy. That means returning to New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium on Sunday, July 19, a little more than three weeks after wrapping up their group stage campaign there with a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador.
Julian Nagelsmann could reasonably point out that his side had already secured top spot in Group E. Both Germany and Ivory Coast finished on six points, but Die Mannschaft held the head-to-head advantage and boasted a far superior goal difference.
Still, the progression of Germany’s results—and the performances that accompanied them—might have Nagelsmann quietly examining the finer details.
Thrashing Curacao and edging past Ivory Coast earned six points—the sort of clinical efficiency that defines tournament football. The loss that followed may not have changed anything tangible in terms of qualification. Yet the concern, if there is one, is that Germany’s level of assurance appeared to drop with each match.
Upcoming opponents can look at how the group unfolded and reasonably conclude that the post-hydration break demolition of Curacao was impressive on paper but not necessarily reflective of the team’s true standing.
It might be harsh to say Germany were lucky to beat Ivory Coast, but there’s some truth to that. A draw wouldn’t have been undeserved, and the margins were fine throughout.
The defeat to Ecuador, however, was fully merited—and that’s what should worry Nagelsmann. Germany took an early lead that might have been ruled out on another day, surrendered it almost immediately, and ultimately lost. If resilience is a hallmark of eventual champions, then that first outing at MetLife Stadium didn’t send encouraging signals.
Germany’s current problem lies in the uncomfortable pairing of vulnerabilities at both ends of the pitch.
Manuel Neuer has been a remarkable goalkeeper—an innovator who has won everything there is to win. For a long stretch, he stood as the best in the world. Yet the goals conceded against Ecuador showed signs of both physical decline and a momentary lapse in mental sharpness at a decisive instant.
That Ecuador match hinged on fine margins, and the difference between a once world-leading keeper and a currently elite one proved worth three points at this level.
Ivory Coast and Ecuador both conceded just half as many goals as Germany’s four in the group stage. At the same time, there’s work to be done in attack as the Germans prepare for their round of 32 clash in Boston.
Germany’s squad includes four listed forwards, and each comes with a qualifier.
Kai Havertz and Deniz Undav have both scored multiple times in this World Cup. Havertz, however, admits much of his contribution comes off the ball, while Undav—despite his prolific club form in recent seasons—is experiencing his first international tournament.
Germany do have goals spread elsewhere: Felix Nmecha has opened his account, Leroy Sane has scored, and Jamal Musiala has one to his name. But if one discounts the Curacao rout—which true analysts will—it becomes clear that the absence of a traditional, clinical German striker could pose a problem in the cutthroat environment of knockout football.
Still, it’s worth adding another caveat: this is Germany. The Ecuador match, effectively a dead rubber for Nagelsmann’s men, might prove as much of an outlier as the Curacao one.
There’s a reason supporters are reluctant to write off Germany at a World Cup. History shows this stage is their element—they possess a competitive mindset that few other nations can match when it truly matters.
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