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The 2026 FIFA World Cup is progressing rapidly, with the group stage entering its decisive phase as nations battle to confirm their places in the knockout rounds.

A total of 32 teams out of the 48 participating nations will advance to the next stage. The top two teams from each group automatically qualify, while the eight best third-placed teams will also join them. This means the final round of matches holds immense importance for several sides still in contention for a last-32 berth.

In Group A, Mexico have already sealed their qualification after victories over both South Africa and South Korea. By virtue of a superior head-to-head record against Korea — the only team that can still match them on points — Mexico have also guaranteed top spot in the group.

South Korea began their campaign with a win, leaving them second in the group on three points. South Africa and the Czech Republic, both sitting on a single point, still retain an outside chance of advancing.

For South Korea, the equation is straightforward — they will qualify for the knockout rounds if they avoid defeat against South Africa in their final group match on Thursday, 25 June (2am BST).

A win would take them to six points and secure second place, while a draw would lift them to four points — the maximum total the Czech Republic can also achieve. In that event, Korea would progress in second place due to their superior head-to-head record over the Czechs.

If South Korea lose, South Africa would leapfrog them in the standings. Korea’s fate would then depend on the Czech Republic’s result against Mexico to see if they could still qualify as one of the best third-placed teams on three points.

South Africa currently occupy the bottom spot in Group A with one point from their draw against the Czech Republic. To stay in the competition, they must defeat South Korea or at least better the Czech Republic’s result to finish third.

A victory over South Korea would move them ahead in the table with four points — likely enough for at least third place, depending on the outcome of the Czech Republic versus Mexico fixture.

A defeat would almost certainly end their campaign, while a draw would leave them on two points, which is unlikely to be sufficient to qualify among the best third-placed finishers (details on that process follow below).

The Czech Republic face the toughest task of all, as they must beat Mexico in their final group game. The European side are reliant on other results, but a victory would lift them to four points — almost certainly enough to secure at least third place, and possibly a knockout berth as one of the best eight third-placed teams.

They currently sit third and could stay there if South Africa lose to South Korea. A draw against Mexico, however, would leave them on two points, which is almost certainly insufficient for qualification.

If teams finish level on points, their positions will be determined by the head-to-head record. The team that won the direct meeting will rank higher.

In cases where multiple teams are tied, a mini-league is created using only the results between those teams. Rankings are then based on points earned in those matches, followed by goal difference and goals scored. If still tied, overall group goal difference and goals scored are used as further criteria.

Should teams remain inseparable after these tiebreakers, the Team Conduct Score (TCS) — a fair play metric — is applied. Each team begins with zero points, with deductions made for disciplinary infractions as follows:

Yellow card: -1

Red card from two yellows: -3

Straight red card: -4

Yellow followed by straight red: -5

The closer a team’s TCS is to zero, the better. If teams are still level after this, the nation with the higher FIFA ranking from the June update will progress.

The top eight third-placed teams across all groups will be determined first by total points accumulated. If more than eight teams finish with the same number of points, goal difference will decide who advances.

In all probability, teams finishing third with four points or more will qualify, while those on three points will need a strong goal difference to have any chance of progressing.