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Canada’s most significant World Cup encounter so far is fast approaching. A victory over Qatar would edge them closer to the knockout stages and potentially allow them to remain in Vancouver for the next round.

VANCOUVER — The idea of a “biggest game” is constantly evolving. Can a match truly be the biggest before it happens, or does that label depend on the outcome?

For the Canadian Men’s National Team, Thursday’s contest fits that description. After securing a 1-1 draw and earning their first-ever World Cup point against Bosnia and Herzegovina last Friday in Toronto, the squad shifted base to Vancouver. They are now set to play the first of at least two fixtures at BC Place, starting with Thursday’s showdown against Qatar.

A win would lift Canada to four points, giving them a shot at topping Group B heading into the final group stage match. The group winner will stay in Vancouver for the Round of 32 and possibly the Round of 16.

Unsurprisingly, vice-captain Stephen Eustáquio has described the upcoming fixture as the biggest game ever. For him, the next match always carries that weight — but if Canada manages to claim its first-ever men’s World Cup victory, it will mark a transformative moment for football in the country.

“Yeah, [it’s the biggest] because it’s the next one,” Eustáquio told reporters on Tuesday at the team’s University of British Columbia base camp, surrounded by lush trees and clear skies. “I think this is one of the biggest games so far for me with the men’s national team, and at the same time, everybody knows that if we get three points in this next game, it puts us in a good place.”

Thursday’s fixture brings several intriguing storylines and will also mark Jesse Marsch’s first time managing at BC Place. His only prior match in charge was a 6-0 victory to open the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup, a game from which he was suspended.

Here are five key factors Canada must focus on to secure a win.

Can Canada score first?

When Bosnia and Herzegovina took an early lead in the opening match, Canada was left chasing the game. Under Marsch’s 31-match tenure, the team has never come from behind to win in regulation time. Though Cyle Larin’s equaliser provided relief, it still felt like two points dropped.

Scoring first will be essential against a Qatar side that conceded 3.2 expected goals and 26 shots in a 1-1 draw with Switzerland. The responsibility will fall heavily on Jonathan David, who struggled in the opener, and whichever forward partners him — either Larin, the opening-day hero, or the energetic Tani Oluwaseyi, who excels in creating space but has lacked finishing composure.

Canada has a record of 7-0-3 under Marsch when scoring first in regulation time, making the opening goal a priority. Encouragingly, Canada’s last outing in Vancouver ended in a 6-0 thrashing of Honduras.

“Goals are gonna be hard to come by. It’s not something that we’re not aware of,” said right-back Alistair Johnston. “So, it’s gonna be really important that you get an early goal, and then if we do, then we know that teams are playing on our terms, having to open up a bit more. That really opens up more space for us, which kind of plays into our hands.”

Jonathan David needs to shine

If Canada is to find that crucial first goal, the nation’s hopes rest on Jonathan David. The Juventus forward also shares that desire. His performance against Bosnia and Herzegovina was underwhelming — he missed a clear first-half chance and appeared off rhythm in attack. Although he netted twice from penalties in a March friendly against Iceland, he has not scored from open play for Canada since September.

Despite mounting criticism, David appeared composed during training, finishing drills with clinical precision. On Monday, he maintained his calm demeanour, and by Tuesday, he was the main focus, smiling through sessions.

“With a guy like Johnny, people get too hung up on the goals and assists. For me, at the end of the day, he’s just a really talented footballer,” Johnston remarked. “When he’s at his best, it’s not necessarily contributing to the goal ... The spaces that he picks up, how he sees the game, and how he feels the game are unique to anyone in our nation, to be honest.”

David’s ability to generate chances, as seen in the Bosnia and Herzegovina match, is a positive sign. Oluwaseyi’s presence could be crucial in creating more openings for him. But David must convert when those chances come, or the Canadian attack could face more pressure. His teammates continue to back him, and his track record makes him Canada’s most reliable goal threat. This match could be the turning point that reignites his form and boosts Canada’s campaign.

Exploiting the wings

After learning Canada would face Qatar in December’s World Cup draw in Washington, D.C., Marsch travelled to Doha to scout them during the Arab Cup. More recently, he observed their 1-1 draw against Switzerland in Santa Clara, California.

Marsch’s extensive scouting has revealed Qatar’s weaknesses — particularly their struggles in defending wide areas and handling physical opponents. This aligns perfectly with Canada’s high-tempo, physical style.

“I think it’s the edge that teams are looking for right now,” said Richie Laryea. “It’s about being aggressive. We’re always on the front foot, so I think that coincides pretty well with getting in people’s faces and playing aggressively.”

Qatar typically employs a 4-2-3-1 formation, concentrating centrally but leaving vulnerabilities against quick, diagonal runs. To exploit that, Tajon Buchanan could switch to the left flank, with Ali Ahmed or another winger moving right, to vary the attack and create cutting runs. Full-backs like Laryea will be crucial in creating overloads, exposing Qatar’s defenders — most of whom play in the Qatar Stars League and rarely face such intensity.

Managing yellow card risks

Canada’s assertive style can backfire in tournament play, where disciplinary issues can force key players out. Yellow cards are cleared after the group stage, but a second booking could sideline a player for the Switzerland match.

Both Johnston and 20-year-old centre-back Luc De Fougerolles received cautions against Bosnia and Herzegovina. At right-back, Hajduk Split’s Niko Sigur could replace Johnston, potentially making his World Cup debut at the same venue where he once served as a ball boy when Canada defeated French Guiana in a Concacaf Nations League tie at age 15.

Sigur has already featured 19 times for Canada at right-back, often stepping in when Johnston was sidelined with hamstring issues at Celtic FC. The drop-off is minimal, and resting Johnston for Switzerland could be strategic. “We’ve discussed the yellow cards that we have, and we talked about the yellow cards that Qatar has,” Sigur said. “I don’t think it’s always a bad thing to play with arrogance in the right way or to use that confidence that we’ve played with. I think we’re at our best when we play with that swagger.”

De Fougerolles’ situation is trickier, as Canada’s centre-back depth is limited. The next healthy option would be Joel Waterman of Chicago Fire FC, who has just 17 international minutes to his name.

Will Alphonso Davies return?

Alphonso Davies’ fitness remains uncertain. After weeks of regular updates, Canada Soccer has gone quiet, neither confirming nor denying his current “return to play” status. The Bayern Munich star has been working closely with a German trainer under a joint recovery plan with the club and national federation.

His hamstring injury from May was expected to require four to six weeks of recovery. Six weeks on from that UEFA Champions League semifinal setback, there’s still a possibility he could feature against Qatar.

During open training sessions this week, Davies was seen wearing boots and joining warm-up drills for 15 minutes — an encouraging progression from last week in Toronto.

“He’s been very serious about this tournament,” Eustáquio shared on Tuesday. “He has to be 100 percent ... Hopefully he can get back as quickly as possible.”

Technically, all 26 players on the roster are available for selection each match. If necessary, Marsch may bring Davies on for a brief cameo late in the game, but if Canada is performing well, the coach could opt to rest him until the Switzerland clash.