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• Kass stated that Seabreeze Partners values SpaceX at roughly $70 per share based on a range of potential business outcomes.
• He acknowledged that the SpaceX stock could initially trade at a premium, while adding that his firm declined an opportunity to participate in the offering.
• Morningstar analysts stated that they view the SpaceX IPO as overvalued and assigned a fair value estimate of $63 per share.

Seabreeze Partners Management President Doug Kass stated on Tuesday that he values SpaceX at a nearly 50% discount to the offer price, days ahead of its Nasdaq debut later this week.

Kass said in a post on X that his firm, Seabreeze Partners, concluded that SpaceX's intrinsic value is well below the proposed offer price. While acknowledging that the shares could initially trade above the offer price, Kass said his firm declined an invitation to participate in the IPO.

“We currently plan to short the stock - but that could change subject to markets and price,” he added.

According to Kass, Seabreeze Partners values SpaceX at roughly $70 per share, based on a range of potential business outcomes, representing a discount of about 48% to the offer price.

SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion through its IPO, priced at $135 per share and valuing the company at roughly $1.75 trillion.

Morningstar analysts stated in a note on Tuesday that they believe the SpaceX IPO is overvalued. The firm values the SpaceX IPO at $63 per share, which is a discount of about 53% to the offer price.

Kass Says Wall Street Isn't Doing The Work

Kass criticized the quality of commentary surrounding the IPO, saying many market pundits discussing SpaceX had not conducted rigorous valuation work.

He specifically criticized financial television coverage of the IPO, arguing that commentators were speaking in "glittering generalities" while offering confident opinions on valuation.

"Not one talking head said 'I don't know' when asked about the value of SpaceX," Kass wrote, adding that few had likely read the company’s registration statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Release SPCX Forecasts

Meanwhile, investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley released their revenue forecasts for SpaceX, expecting the company’s topline to soar over the coming years.

Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX’s revenue to surge about 182-fold to $3.4 trillion by 2040, from $18.7 billion in 2025.

Goldman Sachs, SpaceX’s lead investment bank, expects the Elon Musk-led aerospace giant’s revenue to rise to $474 billion by 2030, while it forecasts AI revenue to come in at $322 billion.

Morgan Stanley stated in its note that SpaceX could post adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $2.7 trillion by 2040. Goldman expects SpaceX’s adjusted EBITDA to soar over 52-fold to $352 billion by 2030, from $6.6 billion in 2025.

SpaceX IPO is set to be priced on June 11, 2026, with the stock expected to begin trading the next day. According to a report, the offering has already been oversubscribed.

The Procure Space ETF (UFO) is up 113% during this period, while the Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) is up 38%.

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