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Spain have emerged as the top favourites to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to predictions generated by a supercomputer. Despite the narrow margins that highlight the unpredictability of the newly expanded 48-team competition, Spain stand out as the only nation with more than a 50% probability of reaching the quarterfinals, boasting a 52.1% likelihood.

Under the guidance of Luis de la Fuente, the Spanish squad has also been projected to have a 39% chance of reaching the semifinals and a 25.6% probability of advancing to the final. Placed in Group H alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde, Spain hold a strong 75.3% chance of finishing at the top of their group, according to Opta’s model.

The team’s resurgence is largely driven by a new generation of stars hitting their prime. Barcelona’s teenage sensation Lamine Yamal continues to dominate headlines following his breakout performance at Euro 2024. The winger enjoyed a stellar season, netting 24 goals and providing 17 assists across all competitions.

Spain are also boosted by the return of key midfielder Rodri from injury, while forwards Ferran Torres and Mikel Oyarzabal maintain consistent form to strengthen the attack.

France follow as the second favourites with a 13% chance of winning. Didier Deschamps’ side, having reached the finals of the last two World Cups, remain formidable thanks to their depth and experience. England rank third at 11.2%, while reigning champions Argentina are given a 10.4% shot at defending their title. No other team surpasses the 10% mark in Opta’s projections.

Portugal stand fifth with a 7% chance, with expectations high for captain Cristiano Ronaldo as he prepares for his sixth World Cup appearance. Ronaldo, who holds the all-time men’s international scoring record with 143 goals in 226 matches since his 2003 debut, has led Portugal to three major trophies — Euro 2016, and the Nations League titles in 2019 and 2025 — but is yet to claim a World Cup title.

The 41-year-old forward confirmed last year, as reported by CNN, that the 2026 tournament will mark his final appearance on the world stage.

Five-time champions Brazil enter the competition under the management of Carlo Ancelotti. Seeking to end their title drought since 2002, Brazil’s powerful attacking lineup includes Vinícius Jr., Raphinha, Matheus Cunha, and seasoned star Neymar. The supercomputer gives them a 22.1% chance of reaching the semifinals and a 6.6% possibility of winning the tournament.

Dark horses and host nations’ prospects

Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway have been named as potential dark horses in the race for the trophy. Germany hold a 5.1% chance of winning, followed by the Netherlands at 3.6% and Norway at 3.5%.

Norway impressed during the qualifiers, scoring 37 goals, with Manchester City’s Erling Haaland matching the single-campaign qualifying record by netting 16 times in eight games.

Other potential surprise packages include Colombia, runners-up at the 2024 Copa America, who are given a 2.1% chance, and Morocco, rated at 1.9%. The North Africans, who stunned the world by reaching the semifinals in Qatar in 2022, remain the highest-ranked African nation in the projections.

Among the three co-hosts, Opta’s data suggests reasonable chances of progressing past the group stages, though a title win appears improbable. The United States, managed by Mauricio Pochettino, are considered the strongest host nation with a 32.8% likelihood of topping Group D and a 1.2% chance of claiming the title.

Mexico are projected to have a 47.8% probability of winning Group A and over a 50% chance of reaching the Round of 16, though their overall title odds remain at 1%. Canada, meanwhile, enter the tournament with a 42.7% chance of advancing beyond the group stage.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, featuring an expanded 48-team format for the first time, is scheduled to take place from June 11 to July 19.