Thiruvananthapuram: India could witness a relatively mild onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, with weather models indicating that the strong upper-level winds needed for a vigorous start may develop only after June 5-6.
The latest outputs from the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) Global Forecast System (GFS) suggest that the seasonal rains are close to arriving, but the initial phase may be weaker than usual before gradually strengthening.
According to meteorologists, an incoming Western Disturbance needs to move away before upper-level easterly winds can establish themselves over southern India. Until then, the monsoon flow over Kerala is expected to remain subdued.
The southwest monsoon is a critical weather system that delivers most of India’s annual rainfall between June and September. It supports agriculture, replenishes reservoirs and provides relief from intense summer temperatures.
The IMD had initially predicted the monsoon’s arrival over Kerala around May 26. However, the timeline has shifted several times, with current expectations pointing to an onset between June 2 and June 4.
Although pre-monsoon showers have already affected parts of Kerala, all the conditions required for an official declaration are yet to align.
For the IMD to declare the onset of the monsoon, three requirements must be met simultaneously:
Sustained rainfall across at least 60% of Kerala’s designated weather stations.
Westerly winds of a certain speed over the Arabian Sea.
Sufficient cloud cover.
At present, rainfall and cloud cover conditions are favourable, but the westerly winds remain weaker than required.
However, the broader seasonal outlook remains a concern. The IMD recently revised its rainfall forecast from 92 per cent to 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), citing the influence of developing El Nino conditions.
With northern and central India continuing to experience severe heatwave conditions, timely monsoon rains remain crucial for farmers and water resources. Current forecasts point to a gradual build-up rather than a strong and immediate onset.
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