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The competitive landscape for the 2026 World Cup is shaping up with varying levels of difficulty for different nations—some facing tough tests, others having relatively easier paths, and a few poised to deliver surprises.

According to German football analyst Adrian from Spieltag Indonesia, the most intense competition will likely come from Group I.

This group features France, who have reached the final in the last two editions of the tournament, winning once and finishing runners-up once.

Also in the group is Senegal, a team led by star forward Sadio Mane and filled with talented players ready to showcase their skills at the 2026 World Cup.

Senegal enter the tournament with strong momentum, having recently been crowned champions of the Africa Cup of Nations this year.

Then comes Norway, making their return to the World Cup after a 28-year absence. The Scandinavian side is currently in the prime of a golden generation of players.

With stars such as Martin Odegaard and Erling Haaland, Norway will rely heavily on their top talents to make an impact in the tournament.

Notably, Norway were the team responsible for Italy’s failure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup for the third consecutive time.

A dominant victory at San Siro last year secured Norway top position in their qualifying group, earning direct qualification for the World Cup.

Meanwhile, Italy, finishing as runners-up, had to go through the play-offs but were ultimately eliminated by Bosnia and Herzegovina.

“The toughest group for me is Group I, which includes France, Senegal, Norway, and Iraq,” Adrian said during the Tribunnews podcast on Sunday (31 May 2026).

“France have reached the final in the last two World Cups—winning one and finishing second in the other.”

“Their performance since becoming world champions has been consistently impressive, both in the Euros and the World Cup. They’re clear favourites, but they’ll face Senegal—the current African champions.”

“Then there’s Norway with their golden generation, who could be a real threat. This is their first World Cup with this group, so they’ll be eager to shine. And Iraq, who qualified through the play-offs, will look to make the most of the opportunity,” he explained.

At the same time, this group also serves as a warning for France, the favourites in the group.

While Norway and Senegal might be considered dark horses, this could be the perfect setting for a breakthrough moment, particularly for Senegal, who aim to make history in the tournament.

“The element of surprise could come from this group. Even with France’s star-studded squad, they can’t underestimate Senegal or Norway. Even Iraq will play with freedom, knowing reaching this stage is already a huge achievement for them.”

“In football, especially at the World Cup, every team in Group I makes this group the toughest in my opinion,” he added.

Where there’s a tough group, there’s also an easier one—Group E, featuring Germany, Curacao, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador.

Meanwhile, Group F looks the most intriguing, with potential surprises coming from the Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia.

“Under Ronald Koeman, the Netherlands have been among the most stable sides. Their squad is well balanced across defence, goalkeeping, and midfield, though the forward line may still need improvement,” Adrian said.

“Japan have been outstanding in the last two World Cups. Like Norway, they boast a golden generation, guided by Hajime Moriyasu, with players used to competing at the highest level. Their overall play is now comparable, if not superior, to several European teams.”

“This group is complete—the Netherlands, a traditional powerhouse that always performs well at major tournaments, accompanied by dark horses Japan and Sweden.”

“This combination could make things tricky for the Netherlands, but I still see them topping Group F,” he concluded.

(Tribunnews.com/Sina)