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RBI Monetary Policy June 2026: The eyes of the market, industry and investors are fixed on the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Amidst the ongoing tension in West Asia, rising energy prices and global supply chain challenges, experts believe that the central bank will not make any changes in the policy interest rates for the time being. The MPC meeting will take place from June 3 to 5, while RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce policy decisions on June 5.

Repo rate may remain stable at 5.25%

Economists and financial institutions believe that this time RBI can keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent. In view of the current global uncertainties, the central bank may continue with the ‘wait and watch’ strategy.

Experts say that instead of making changes in interest rates, RBI would like to keep a close eye on inflation and global economic conditions for the time being, so that future decisions can be taken in a more balanced manner.

Inflation estimate may increase

Concerns about inflation have increased due to increase in energy prices, weakness of the rupee and disruption in the supply chain. Many experts believe that RBI may revise its current inflation forecast upwards.

According to a report by State Bank of India (SBI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation may remain above 5 percent in the next three quarters. However, in the current quarter it is expected to be between 4 to 4.1 percent.

Reduction in GDP growth estimate possible

In view of inflationary pressure and global economic challenges, there is a possibility of some decline in GDP growth rate estimates. Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist of Bank of Baroda, believes that RBI may reduce its growth estimate for the financial year from 6.9 percent to around 6.5 percent.

However, the SBI report points to relatively strong economic activity during the financial year and estimates 7.5 percent GDP growth for the full year. In such a situation, the final revision will depend on the risk assessment of RBI.

Indications to maintain a cautious attitude

RBI has already indicated that it is reviewing economic growth and inflation forecasts. Experts believe that the central bank will maintain a neutral and cautious stance for the time being.

According to Deepti Deshpande, Principal Economist, CRISIL, the current inflationary pressure is mainly to the supply side, with higher fuel costs, rising raw material prices and weak rupee being the main reasons. In such a situation, there seems to be the highest possibility of maintaining the status quo in both rates and policy stance in the June policy meeting.

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