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Muhammad Faizan

These days a new political rumor is floating in the Thakurdwara assembly seat of UP. For decades, this seat, which revolves around Muslim voters, has been ruled by the Samajwadi Party. In the last decade, SP created such a strong base here, on the basis of which it scored a hat-trick of consecutive victories in the 2017 and 2022 assembly elections, including the 2014 by-election. But now, just before the battle of 2027, a big question is echoing in the political circles – will the increasing activism of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) among the Muslim community be able to break into this impenetrable fort of SP?

In fact, the political mood of Thakurdwara has always been very interesting. Political pundits believe that there has been no major change on the ground overnight, but some such signs are definitely being seen which the strategists of the Samajwadi Party cannot ignore even if they want to. The increasing reach of BJP in the Muslim community has given rise to a new debate in the electoral air of this area.

2022 election mathematics and SP’s strength

If we look at the figures of the last assembly elections, it becomes clear how deep SP’s hold was in Thakurdwara. In the year 2022, SP candidate Nawab Jaan got about 48.76% votes, while BJP’s Ajay Pratap Singh stood second with 41.62% votes. Analysts say that the opposition was scattered in that election—BSP and Congress were almost out of the race, which directly benefited SP. Muslim votes went one-sided and fell in Nawab Jaan’s favor. Although BJP definitely increased its vote percentage, it remained a little short of the victory figure.

The story behind BJP’s increasing reach in Muslim society

Then what happened suddenly that BJP started being discussed in this Muslim dominated seat? In fact, for some time now the presence of BJP leaders in the local social fabric of Thakurdwara has increased rapidly. Be it family and business programs of the Muslim community, or educational and social meetings, saffron party leaders are now seen everywhere.

According to local people, two prominent faces of BJP—Amit Chauhan and Ajay Pratap Singh—are very active in the area these days. These two leaders are not limited only to their traditional vote bank, but are also actively participating in the happiness and sorrow of the Muslim society. Be it a wedding or any social event, their presence has fueled the discussion of new political equations.

Is the mood of Muslim youth changing?

Observers who follow regional politics closely claim that a slow but big change is taking place in the thinking of the Muslim youth of Thakurdwara. Today’s youth seems to be in no mood to vote only on traditional or emotional issues. Now issues like employment, better education, business opportunities and local development are being discussed openly in tea parties and meetings. This is the reason why BJP is trying to communicate directly with this youth group. However, this does not at all mean that the entire vote bank has changed, but it is clear that the closed doors of dialogue are now opening.

Why may difficulties increase for SP?

The entire politics of Samajwadi Party generally depends on the Muslim-Yadav (MY) equation. In an election with equations like Thakurdwara, if even just 4 to 5 percent of the votes from this vote bank slip to the other side, then the whole game changes. The thing to note is that BJP already has a strong traditional vote bank of non-Yadav OBCs, upper castes and Apna. The path to victory is certainly difficult for BJP, which will get more than 41 percent votes in 2022, but not impossible. In such a situation, even a small scatter of votes can prove costly for SP.

SP’s strong credibility and the challenge of 2027

On the other hand, it would be too early to underestimate the SP camp. Current MLA Nawab Jaan has been winning for three consecutive terms and has a direct connection with the people of the area. Apart from this, recently former block chief Mujahid Ali has also joined Samajwadi Party, due to which the list of ticket contenders as well as the strength of the party has increased. The common Muslim voter still sees SP as the strongest alternative to BJP.

Overall, ticket distribution and selection of candidates is going to be the biggest factor in the 2027 elections. While BJP will try to add new sections while saving its old voters, SP’s entire strength will be used to save its traditional fort. Alarm bells may not have rung yet, but the new sounds of change in the political atmosphere of Thakurdwara are going to intensify in the coming days.