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Once again the commotion regarding Rajya Sabha elections has intensified across the country. The Election Commission has announced the elections for a total of 24 Rajya Sabha seats in 10 states. Voting for all these seats will be held on June 18, but even before that the opposition has lost its breath. The opposition is afraid that Operation Lotus of BJP might dislodge their MLAs. In the Rajya Sabha elections held a few months ago, opposition MLAs in Bihar, Haryana and Odisha had voted for BJP candidates.

Out of the 24 seats on which elections will be held, 4 seats each are falling vacant in Gujarat, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Apart from this, three seats each of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are also falling vacant. Two seats of Jharkhand and one seat each of Manipur, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram are falling vacant on which elections are to be held.

Threat to opposition in Jharkhand

Even before the elections to be held in Jharkhand, the ruling coalition is facing danger. The alliance has enough MLAs for two seats but despite this the alliance is worried. The ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha has written a letter to the Election Commission expressing apprehension over attempts of pressure and financial inducements on the MLAs. The alliance needs 28-28 MLAs for the two seats in Jharkhand. BJP has only 24 MLAs but still the party has decided to field candidates. If even 4 MLAs of the ruling alliance vote for BJP, then BJP’s work will be done. In such a situation, the alliance is now worried.

Threat to Congress in Madhya Pradesh

There is a BJP government in Madhya Pradesh and to win a seat, the votes of a total of 58 MLAs are required. Congress currently has the support of a total of 52 MLAs. If we look at the current equations of the state, there is a possibility of BJP getting 2 out of 3 seats and Congress getting one seat. Now if BJP fields a candidate on the third seat also, then Congress will be in danger of breaking. Congress has already suffered this loss in Haryana and Odisha.

Can be played in Karnataka also

Elections will be held on 4 seats in Karnataka. In the 224-member assembly, Congress has 135 MLAs, BJP has 66 and JDS has 16 MLAs. To win a Rajya Sabha seat, 46 votes will be required. In such a situation, Congress can easily win 2 seats but for the third seat it will need 3 additional votes. On the other hand, NDA has a total of 82 MLAs. NDA can easily win the first seat but to win the second seat it will need about 10 MLAs.

Who benefits and who suffers loss?

If elections are held according to the existing equations and there is no cross-voting, then NDA can get 17 seats and an advantage of two seats compared to earlier. In this, TDP will benefit the most and ISR Congress will suffer the most loss. Congress party will gain in Karnataka but the party will become zero in Gujarat. In Tamil Nadu, CM Vijay’s party can give a Rajya Sabha seat to Congress as a gift of new friendship.