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Earth could lose half its population by 2064, says study
27 May 2026

A new study has warned that the global population could be halved by 2064.

The prediction, based on a mathematical model, is not a forecast but an "illustrative mathematical scenario" showing how sudden changes can impact population dynamics.

The researchers, including Alessio Zaccone of the University of Milan and his late colleague Kostya Trachenko, who worked at Queen Mary University in London, examined 12,000 years of human growth and created an equation that accurately reflected these trends.

Sudden drop in Earth's carrying capacity
Population dynamics

The study's mathematical model suggests that if Earth's sustainable carrying capacity suddenly dropped to around two billion people, a rapid global population decline could ensue.

This scenario would see humanity halving by 2064.

This may be due to any of the four reasons: climate collapse, global conflict, a pandemic, or even resource shortages.

Revisiting the 'doomsday' prediction
Doomsday scenario

The study also revisited the "doomsday" prediction made in 1960, which suggested humanity would go extinct on November 13, 2026.

The researchers noted that this scenario was avoided due to a global decline in fertility rates.

They warned that "the underlying mathematics of runaway growth can still reappear under certain conditions," highlighting potential future risks to population stability.