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One of the biggest uncertainties surrounding the first-ever 48-team FIFA World Cup in 2026 is how the unpredictable third-place rankings will unfold.

This expanded edition will feature 12 groups of four teams each. The top two teams from every group will automatically progress to the knockout stage, along with the eight best third-place finishers across all groups.

This format has been previously seen in recent editions of the UEFA European Championship, although that competition only involved 24 teams.

Think back to Portugal in 2016 — they famously finished third in their group with three draws out of three matches, and yet went on to lift the trophy.

Could history repeat itself in 2026? That depends largely on what it takes to finish as one of the eight best third-place teams.

Is one win enough to qualify?

The European Championship format offers some insight. Typically, four points — achieved through one win, one draw, and one defeat — is almost always sufficient to advance. However, a single win by itself is often not enough to progress.

In Euro 2016, for instance, third-placed teams Turkey and Albania were knocked out despite securing one victory each and losing their other two games, leaving them with only three points.

Similarly, at Euro 2020, Finland and Slovakia both finished with one win and two defeats, but three points were insufficient to move forward.

At Euro 2024, Hungary were also eliminated despite collecting three points, while Slovenia managed to advance with three draws and no wins — echoing Portugal’s 2016 route.

The key factor: goal difference

Looking at these past tournaments, it’s clear that goal difference plays a decisive role in determining which third-place teams qualify.

In 2016, Turkey and Albania both exited the competition with a goal difference of -2, while Portugal and Northern Ireland advanced on three points with an even goal difference.

At Euro 2020, Finland were eliminated on a -2 goal difference, whereas Ukraine advanced with three points and a goal difference of -1.

Then, in 2024, Hungary’s -3 goal difference cost them a place in the knockouts, despite defeating Scotland in their final group match.

The takeaway from these examples is that earning three points plus maintaining a goal difference of at least -1 appears to be the minimum threshold for survival — with a higher margin, of course, offering greater security.

In practical terms, this would mean winning one match and ensuring that the other two defeats are by no more than a single goal.

That said, such an approach would be incredibly risky, leaving a team’s fate dependent on other group outcomes.

On the other hand, it’s highly improbable that a team finishing third with four points — from one win, one draw, and one loss — would fail to advance. Conversely, progressing with just two points from two draws and one defeat would be extremely unlikely.