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Oil prices might touch $96 per barrel in 2026: ADB
10 May 2026

The ongoing Middle East crisis is likely to keep crude oil prices elevated for a longer period of time.

Albert Park, Chief Economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), told PTI that the average price per barrel could reach as high as $96 this year.

He also predicted that it would remain high at around $80 per barrel next year.

India's GDP growth to take hit
Economic impact

Park also spoke about the economic impact of the ongoing crisis on India. He said that it would shave off 0.6% from India's GDP growth, bringing it down to 6.3%.

The ADB had previously projected a "robust" GDP growth of 6.9% for this fiscal year and an increase to 7.3% in the next fiscal year, driven by strong domestic demand.

Inflation to rise significantly
Inflation forecast

Park also predicted a significant rise in inflation due to the ongoing crisis.

He said inflation would increase by 2.4% this year to 6.9%.

The ADB had earlier projected an inflation rate of 4.5% for the current fiscal year, but Park's revised estimate is much higher owing to India's heavy dependence on imported oil and gas.

ADB revises Asia Pacific growth projection for 2026
Regional impact

In its special update on April 29, the ADB had lowered the Asia Pacific growth projection for 2026 to 4.7% from an earlier estimate of 5.1%.

This revision was also due to the prolonged disruptions in West Asia.

The economist emphasized that India's reliance on imported oil and gas makes it more vulnerable to inflation impacts compared to other countries in the region.