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Four days after the results of the Tamil Nadu Assembly election were declared, uncertainty continues over who will form the next government in the state. Actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), emerged as the single-largest force with a stunning debut performance, but remain short of the majority mark required to take power.

How numbers look

The TVK secured 108 seats in the 243-member Assembly. However, since Vijay himself won from both Perambur and Tiruchirappalli East, he must vacate one constituency under Election Commission rules, reducing the party’s effective tally to 107. With the support of the Congress, the number rises to 113 — still five short of the 118 seats needed to form the government.

The impasse has triggered intense political negotiations and opened the door to the possibility of an unprecedented understanding between long-time rivals, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

Governor yet to invite Vijay

Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar met Vijay for the second time in two days on Thursday, but did not invite him to form the government.

In an official statement, the Raj Bhavan said: “During the meeting, the Governor explained that the requisite majority support in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly, essential for forming the Government, has not been established.”

The decision has drawn criticism from opposition leaders and TVK supporters, who argue that Vijay should be allowed to prove his majority on the floor of the Assembly.

According to a PTI report, the TVK also held a closed-door meeting of its newly elected MLAs on Thursday. Legislators reportedly questioned party general secretary ‘Bussy’ N Anand about the delay in government formation. Quoting sources, PTI reported that Anand urged patience, saying Vijay was “making all the efforts” to secure the required numbers.

Congress backs TVK, left yet to decide

So far, the Congress is the only party to publicly announce support for the TVK. Karnataka deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar called the Governor’s stance “unfair” and backed Vijay’s claim to be given an opportunity to prove majority support in the House.

The support of smaller parties such as the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Communist Party of India (CPI), and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) could become crucial in determining the next government.

Sources told NDTV that Vijay has been exploring a Congress-Left-VCK arrangement to inch closer to the majority mark. However, the Left parties are reportedly divided, with some leaders favouring neutrality while others are open to backing the TVK.

Congress leader Manickam Tagore sharply criticised the DMK amid reports of talks with the AIADMK, accusing the ruling party of “betraying secularism” by considering support from what he called the BJP’s “B team”.

DMK-AIADMK understanding under discussion

The biggest political development has been growing speculation over a possible DMK-AIADMK understanding aimed at preventing Vijay’s rise to power.

According to NDTV sources, the DMK has indicated that the AIADMK would first need to sever ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) before any arrangement could move forward. Additional conditions reportedly include ministerial representation for smaller allies such as the VCK.

DMK spokesperson TKS Elangovan publicly downplayed the possibility of such an alliance, saying: “I don’t think it is possible because we, DMK and AIADMK, are the major enemies in Tamil Nadu politics…”

Still, political observers believe both Dravidian majors are increasingly concerned about the long-term impact of Vijay’s rapid rise.

For the DMK, analysts say the situation evokes memories of the late MG Ramachandran era, when the AIADMK dominated Tamil Nadu politics for a decade. For the AIADMK, the concern stems from repeated electoral defeats against the DMK in recent years and the fear that the TVK could permanently alter the state’s political landscape.

BJP denies role in political deadlock

Amid speculation that the BJP may be indirectly encouraging a DMK-AIADMK understanding to keep the Congress out of power, the party has denied any involvement.

BJP state spokesperson N Thirupathy said: “It is a fractured verdict… TVK doesn’t have a majority. If he proves a majority, then the governor will constitutionally accept it. There is no confusion…”