In some senses, BJP's massive victory in West Bengal is the biggest electoral event in the state's post-Independence history. It suggests not just a change of government but of regime. Its implications have, and will, continue to be analysed. It has several triggers: fatigue turning to anger vis-a-vis the TMC government; a larger mood for change and economic hope; a Hindu consolidation. The ratio and prioritisation can be debated. But all three factors were causative.
In a larger, pan-India reckoning, what does May 4 mean? Three implications stand out:
The impressive debut of actor Vijay and his young party, TVK, has filled the gap in Tamil Nadu. In the other states, BJP is blessed with an opposition space that is still vacant. Congress fancies in long-term chances. Indeed, it might even have assisted in the ousting of its regional rivals in Bengal and Delhi.
However, the party is far from battle-ready. Neither have new local responses - whether political formations or social coalitions - emerged. For the next cycle of elections, at least till the Lok Sabha contest of 2029, this would give BJP an advantage. At this point, few would bet against Narendra Modi's re-election. There is a stable pathway ahead for the national polity and for policymaking, insofar as anything is stable in the turbulent 2020s.
Both DMK and TMC have packed a punch in Parliament. The recent thwarting of the delimitation Bill owed much to these parties not ceding ground. Even so, it is one thing for a party's parliamentary contingent to be able to make a mark when backed by a comfortably placed state government and a powerful regional leader. Without that cushion, challenges and contradictions emerge. Politics is a brutal game. Articulate, occasionally shrill voices that demonstrate (nuisance) value are suddenly exposed as political lightweights.
Regional parties rarely prepare for bad days. Packing Rajya Sabha nominations with either ideologically flexible businesspersons or celebrities is tempting. It lowers the risk of in-house factional challenges. When the chips are down, however, it creates vulnerability. Arvind Kejriwal and defection-hit AAP have learnt this the hard way. Trinamool might well encounter similar headaches in the months ahead.
Collectively, the East is the Modi-led BJP's 'Promised Land' - some realised, some still aspirational. It is also where India's most pressing needs and anxieties reside. In the Gangetic east, there is a deeply felt craving for an industrial story, a modernisation of the farming sector with an agro-processing resolve, and an imaginative urbanisation push. This has contributed to Bihari and now Bengali workers and their families placing their faith in the PM to give their home states a sustainable economic foundation beyond just remittances and welfarism.
In time, these urges could extend to Kerala. The ambitious National Critical Mineral Mission - the outlay for which was enhanced significantly in the February 2026 budget - is essentially a bet on Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Of these, currently only Tamil Nadu can truly be called an industrially-advanced state.
The potential for mining - not necessarily for critical minerals - in West Bengal is apparent. All of this constitutes a cherished national goal. For BJP, it's equally a sacred political commitment. May 4 has bound those twin imperatives that much tighter.
In a larger, pan-India reckoning, what does May 4 mean? Three implications stand out:
- Mamata Banerjee's defeat has to be read alongside the other state election results, particularly the one unseating DMK in Tamil Nadu. On one dramatic day, two remaining regional pillars of the anyway-embattled opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) lost power and entered existential crises. In 2025, RJD's defeat in Bihar and AAP's in Delhi, and before that Shiv Sena (Uddhav)-NCP (Sharad) combine's loss in Maharashtra, were all blows to INDIA.
The impressive debut of actor Vijay and his young party, TVK, has filled the gap in Tamil Nadu. In the other states, BJP is blessed with an opposition space that is still vacant. Congress fancies in long-term chances. Indeed, it might even have assisted in the ousting of its regional rivals in Bengal and Delhi.
However, the party is far from battle-ready. Neither have new local responses - whether political formations or social coalitions - emerged. For the next cycle of elections, at least till the Lok Sabha contest of 2029, this would give BJP an advantage. At this point, few would bet against Narendra Modi's re-election. There is a stable pathway ahead for the national polity and for policymaking, insofar as anything is stable in the turbulent 2020s.
- The legislative landscape has been altered appreciably. BJP has much greater room for parliamentary manoeuvre. This is not just in terms of potential accretion in votes for any government Bills or constitutional amendments. It is also there in the less tangible 'management' of parliamentary sessions: atmospherics, optics and narrative, and the media environment.
Both DMK and TMC have packed a punch in Parliament. The recent thwarting of the delimitation Bill owed much to these parties not ceding ground. Even so, it is one thing for a party's parliamentary contingent to be able to make a mark when backed by a comfortably placed state government and a powerful regional leader. Without that cushion, challenges and contradictions emerge. Politics is a brutal game. Articulate, occasionally shrill voices that demonstrate (nuisance) value are suddenly exposed as political lightweights.
Regional parties rarely prepare for bad days. Packing Rajya Sabha nominations with either ideologically flexible businesspersons or celebrities is tempting. It lowers the risk of in-house factional challenges. When the chips are down, however, it creates vulnerability. Arvind Kejriwal and defection-hit AAP have learnt this the hard way. Trinamool might well encounter similar headaches in the months ahead.
- A certain congruence is emerging between BJP's geographical expansion and India's economic and developmental priorities. In the Modi era, BJP has grown to such an extent in eastern India that it now has chief ministers in Bengal, Bihar and Odisha. Never mind 2014, this was unimaginable even 2 yrs ago. Polymarket would have offered very long odds.
Collectively, the East is the Modi-led BJP's 'Promised Land' - some realised, some still aspirational. It is also where India's most pressing needs and anxieties reside. In the Gangetic east, there is a deeply felt craving for an industrial story, a modernisation of the farming sector with an agro-processing resolve, and an imaginative urbanisation push. This has contributed to Bihari and now Bengali workers and their families placing their faith in the PM to give their home states a sustainable economic foundation beyond just remittances and welfarism.
In time, these urges could extend to Kerala. The ambitious National Critical Mineral Mission - the outlay for which was enhanced significantly in the February 2026 budget - is essentially a bet on Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Of these, currently only Tamil Nadu can truly be called an industrially-advanced state.
The potential for mining - not necessarily for critical minerals - in West Bengal is apparent. All of this constitutes a cherished national goal. For BJP, it's equally a sacred political commitment. May 4 has bound those twin imperatives that much tighter.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)
Ashok Malik
The author is partner, The Asia Group, and chair of its India practice