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An AI generated image for representation of Himanta Biswa Sarma and Gaurav Gogoi
If early projections are anything to go by, the battle for Assam may already be tilting decisively in favour of the BJP. Exit polls released after a high voter turnout of 84.42 percent on April 9 suggest that the ruling party, led by Himanta Biswa Sarma, could be heading for another comfortable win, leaving Congress staring at a third straight defeat in the state.
Most pollsters have projected a clear edge for the BJP-led NDA over the Congress-led UPA, with several surveys pointing to a wide gap in seat share. Chanakya has predicted a landslide with the NDA crossing the 100-seat mark, while JVC and Janmat polls have also indicated a dominant performance, placing the alliance well ahead of its rivals. Even the more conservative estimates, such as Peoples Pulse, continue to show the NDA in a commanding position.
Also Read: Exit poll predictions: What pollsters got right (and wrong) in previous assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry
A consolidated “poll of polls” average further reinforces this trend, projecting around 92 seats for the NDA compared to roughly 30 for the UPA, with a marginal presence for others. If these numbers translate into actual results on counting day, the outcome would reaffirm the BJP’s strong grip over Assam’s political landscape.
Leadership battle at the centre
This election has largely revolved around a direct contest between Sarma and Gogoi. The Congress campaign, backed by senior leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, attempted to rebuild the party’s state machinery and present Gogoi as a credible challenger.
However, Sarma’s political journey — from a former Congress leader to one of the BJP’s most influential regional faces since 2015 — has given him a strategic edge. His understanding of the Congress’ traditional voter base, combined with targeted alliances and messaging, has helped the BJP consolidate support across communities.
Also Read: Exit Polls failures: Nine times predictions missed the mark
Congress pitches governance, welfare push
The Congress campaign focused heavily on governance reforms and economic revival. Its manifesto outlined plans for transparent land records, tax reforms, and prioritising local employment. It also promised flood relief measures, faster recruitment in public services, and expanded welfare schemes — particularly for tea garden workers, including better wages and basic infrastructure.
Gogoi also sharpened his attack on the Chief Minister, raising questions over alleged financial and property matters, while positioning issues like inflation, unemployment, and centralisation of power at the forefront of his campaign. The party also explored broader opposition unity in a bid to consolidate anti-BJP votes.
BJP’s organisational and governance advantage
On the other hand, the BJP’s campaign leaned on its governance record and organisational strength. Schemes focused on healthcare, community welfare, and infrastructure development have been central to its outreach. Backed by a disciplined cadre network and strong grassroots presence, the party has maintained a consistent electoral advantage in the state.
Sarma’s leadership has played a key role in this, blending administrative delivery with sharp political messaging — a combination that appears to be resonating with voters, going by exit poll trends.
What it could mean
If the projections hold, the results could reinforce Assam as a BJP stronghold while posing serious questions for the Congress’ revival strategy in the Northeast. For Gogoi, this election represents a crucial test of leadership at a time when the party is attempting to rebuild its regional presence.
With counting scheduled for May 4, the final verdict will determine whether these projections translate into reality. Either way, the outcome is likely to shape not just Assam’s political direction, but also the broader narrative of opposition politics in India in the months ahead.
Most pollsters have projected a clear edge for the BJP-led NDA over the Congress-led UPA, with several surveys pointing to a wide gap in seat share. Chanakya has predicted a landslide with the NDA crossing the 100-seat mark, while JVC and Janmat polls have also indicated a dominant performance, placing the alliance well ahead of its rivals. Even the more conservative estimates, such as Peoples Pulse, continue to show the NDA in a commanding position.
Also Read: Exit poll predictions: What pollsters got right (and wrong) in previous assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry
A consolidated “poll of polls” average further reinforces this trend, projecting around 92 seats for the NDA compared to roughly 30 for the UPA, with a marginal presence for others. If these numbers translate into actual results on counting day, the outcome would reaffirm the BJP’s strong grip over Assam’s political landscape.
| Poll Agency | NDA | UPA | OTH |
| P-Marq | 82–94 | 30–40 | 1–5 |
| Matrize | 85–95 | 25–32 | 6–12 |
| JVC Exit Poll | 88–101 | 23–33 | 2–5 |
| Peoples Pulse | 68–72 | 22–26 | 5 |
| Janmat Polls | 87–98 | 29–30 | 0 |
| Chanakya | 102 | 23 | 1 |
| Poll of Polls | 92 | 30 | 4 |
This election has largely revolved around a direct contest between Sarma and Gogoi. The Congress campaign, backed by senior leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, attempted to rebuild the party’s state machinery and present Gogoi as a credible challenger.
However, Sarma’s political journey — from a former Congress leader to one of the BJP’s most influential regional faces since 2015 — has given him a strategic edge. His understanding of the Congress’ traditional voter base, combined with targeted alliances and messaging, has helped the BJP consolidate support across communities.
Also Read: Exit Polls failures: Nine times predictions missed the mark
Congress pitches governance, welfare push
The Congress campaign focused heavily on governance reforms and economic revival. Its manifesto outlined plans for transparent land records, tax reforms, and prioritising local employment. It also promised flood relief measures, faster recruitment in public services, and expanded welfare schemes — particularly for tea garden workers, including better wages and basic infrastructure.
Gogoi also sharpened his attack on the Chief Minister, raising questions over alleged financial and property matters, while positioning issues like inflation, unemployment, and centralisation of power at the forefront of his campaign. The party also explored broader opposition unity in a bid to consolidate anti-BJP votes.
BJP’s organisational and governance advantage
On the other hand, the BJP’s campaign leaned on its governance record and organisational strength. Schemes focused on healthcare, community welfare, and infrastructure development have been central to its outreach. Backed by a disciplined cadre network and strong grassroots presence, the party has maintained a consistent electoral advantage in the state.
Sarma’s leadership has played a key role in this, blending administrative delivery with sharp political messaging — a combination that appears to be resonating with voters, going by exit poll trends.
What it could mean
If the projections hold, the results could reinforce Assam as a BJP stronghold while posing serious questions for the Congress’ revival strategy in the Northeast. For Gogoi, this election represents a crucial test of leadership at a time when the party is attempting to rebuild its regional presence.
With counting scheduled for May 4, the final verdict will determine whether these projections translate into reality. Either way, the outcome is likely to shape not just Assam’s political direction, but also the broader narrative of opposition politics in India in the months ahead.
