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Exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections in Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and Tamil Nadu are set to be released later today. Interestingly, in the previous round of Assembly elections in these states, pollsters were largely accurate in their projections. Here’s a look at what they predicted—and how those forecasts compared with the actual results.
Assam
In 2021, most exit polls projected a return of the BJP-led government in Assam. The majority of surveys indicated that the NDA would comfortably cross the majority mark of 64 seats in the 126-member Assembly.
A poll of polls estimated around 73 seats for the NDA and 52 for the Congress-led alliance. Axis My India predicted 75–85 seats for the BJP, while Today’s Chanakya projected around 70 seats. Republic-CNX gave the NDA 74–84 seats, and Times Now-CVoter estimated 65.
The actual results closely matched these projections, with the NDA securing 75 seats and retaining power—marking the first time a non-Congress alliance won consecutive terms in the state.
West Bengal
Exit polls in 2021 suggested a tight contest between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP, with many predicting a hung Assembly. A poll of polls gave TMC 141 seats and BJP 138 in the 294-member House.
Axis My India - TMC: 143, BJP: 147, and CPM+: 2
India TV - TMC: 88, BJP: 192, and CPM+: 12
Pollstrat - TMC: 147, BJP: 130, and CPM+: 15
IPSOS - TMC: 158, BJP: 115, and CPM+: 19
Jan Ki Baat - TMC: 112, BJP: 174, and CPM+: 6
CNX Republic - TMC: 133, BJP: 143, and CPM+: 16
ETG Research - TMC: 169, BJP: 110, and CPM+: 12
P-MARQ - TMC: 158, BJP: 120, and CPM+: 14
Times Now-CVoter - TMC: 158, BJP: 115, and CPM+: 19
However, the results defied these projections. Mamata Banerjee-led TMC returned to power with a landslide victory, while the BJP secured 77 seats to become the principal opposition.
Tamil Nadu
Exit polls in Tamil Nadu largely predicted a win for the DMK-led alliance under MK Stalin. A poll of six exit polls suggested the DMK could win up to 175 seats in the 234-member Assembly.
While the DMK did win the election, the margin was lower than expected, with the party securing 133 seats. The AIADMK finished with 66 seats—better than some projections had suggested.
Kerala
In Kerala, exit polls unanimously forecast a comfortable victory for the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). A poll of five exit polls estimated around 88 seats for the alliance.
The actual outcome aligned with these predictions. The LDF won 99 seats, retaining power and making history as the first alliance since 1977 to win consecutive terms in the state.
Puducherry
Exit polls for Puducherry in 2021 predicted a win for the NDA, led by the All India NR Congress (AINRC). Most projections placed the NDA well ahead of the Congress-led alliance.
The results largely validated these forecasts, with the NDA forming the government after securing 16 seats, while the Congress alliance managed just 9.
Assam
In 2021, most exit polls projected a return of the BJP-led government in Assam. The majority of surveys indicated that the NDA would comfortably cross the majority mark of 64 seats in the 126-member Assembly.
A poll of polls estimated around 73 seats for the NDA and 52 for the Congress-led alliance. Axis My India predicted 75–85 seats for the BJP, while Today’s Chanakya projected around 70 seats. Republic-CNX gave the NDA 74–84 seats, and Times Now-CVoter estimated 65.
The actual results closely matched these projections, with the NDA securing 75 seats and retaining power—marking the first time a non-Congress alliance won consecutive terms in the state.
West Bengal
Exit polls in 2021 suggested a tight contest between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP, with many predicting a hung Assembly. A poll of polls gave TMC 141 seats and BJP 138 in the 294-member House.
Axis My India - TMC: 143, BJP: 147, and CPM+: 2
India TV - TMC: 88, BJP: 192, and CPM+: 12
Pollstrat - TMC: 147, BJP: 130, and CPM+: 15
IPSOS - TMC: 158, BJP: 115, and CPM+: 19
Jan Ki Baat - TMC: 112, BJP: 174, and CPM+: 6
CNX Republic - TMC: 133, BJP: 143, and CPM+: 16
ETG Research - TMC: 169, BJP: 110, and CPM+: 12
P-MARQ - TMC: 158, BJP: 120, and CPM+: 14
Times Now-CVoter - TMC: 158, BJP: 115, and CPM+: 19
However, the results defied these projections. Mamata Banerjee-led TMC returned to power with a landslide victory, while the BJP secured 77 seats to become the principal opposition.
Tamil Nadu
Exit polls in Tamil Nadu largely predicted a win for the DMK-led alliance under MK Stalin. A poll of six exit polls suggested the DMK could win up to 175 seats in the 234-member Assembly.
While the DMK did win the election, the margin was lower than expected, with the party securing 133 seats. The AIADMK finished with 66 seats—better than some projections had suggested.
Kerala
In Kerala, exit polls unanimously forecast a comfortable victory for the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). A poll of five exit polls estimated around 88 seats for the alliance.
The actual outcome aligned with these predictions. The LDF won 99 seats, retaining power and making history as the first alliance since 1977 to win consecutive terms in the state.
Puducherry
Exit polls for Puducherry in 2021 predicted a win for the NDA, led by the All India NR Congress (AINRC). Most projections placed the NDA well ahead of the Congress-led alliance.
The results largely validated these forecasts, with the NDA forming the government after securing 16 seats, while the Congress alliance managed just 9.
