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Despite facing its share of controversy ahead of release and mixed reviews, Michael is racing toward a historic box office debut, positioning itself to set a new benchmark for musical biopics in its opening week.

Backed by Lionsgate, the Michael Jackson biopic is projected to earn between $90 million and $100 million domestically within its first week. The strong start has been fuelled by impressive early numbers, including around $12 million from pre-weekend previews and an estimated $39.5 million on its opening Friday alone.

© Lionsgate Films

Even if the film lands on the lower end of these projections, it is still expected to comfortably overtake Straight Outta Compton, which currently holds the record for the biggest opening weekend for a musical biopic.

Reacting to the film’s massive response, Lionsgate Motion Picture Group Chair Adam Fogelson credited the entire team behind the project. He said, “This record-breaking performance is a testament to the incredible filmmaking team of producer Graham King and director Antoine Fuqua, an amazing cast led by Jaafar Jackson’s singular performance, our world-class partners at Universal, the cooperation and support of the Michael Jackson Estate, and our tireless and exceptionally talented Lionsgate team.”

He further added, “Above all, it reflects the tremendous outpouring of love and affection from moviegoers around the world, underscoring the strength and vitality of the theatrical box office. If you give audiences what they want, they will come.”

Globally, Michael is off to a thunderous start, with projections suggesting it could rake in nearly $200 million worldwide in its opening weekend alone. According to Billboard, that figure would instantly place the Michael Jackson biopic among the top five highest-grossing musical biopics ever.

At this pace, the film is expected to soon overtake Straight Outta Compton (which earned $201 million globally) and even Elvis (with $288 million worldwide) in the coming days.

That said, the road to the top remains steep. The current benchmark is held by Bohemian Rhapsody, the Queen biopic, which amassed a staggering $910 million globally during its theatrical run. The film also earned Rami Malek an Academy Award for Best Actor, setting both commercial and critical standards that Michael will be aiming to match or surpass.