Business Desk – Market view: There is some confusion regarding the ceasefire since this morning. Brent crude has recovered $8 a barrel from its recent lows amid fears that a ceasefire is in danger in the Middle East. Brent is now trading near the level of $98 per barrel. Even yesterday, the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked.
Iranian officials have said that the ceasefire agreement has been violated. Israel continues its attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon. There have been reports of missile attacks from many countries including Kuwait, Bahrain, Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance has said that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement.
Clouds of crisis over ceasefire
Meanwhile, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament has accused America of violating the ceasefire. Iran has insisted that America is once again going back on its promises. Israel continues to attack Lebanon. Additionally, an American drone reportedly intruded into Iranian airspace. In such circumstances, bilateral talks become meaningless.
Trump’s statement
Separately, President Trump has said that under the terms of the deal, Iran does not have the right to enrich uranium. He said that “regime change” has been done very effectively in Iran. Negotiations are about to begin with Iran regarding relief from tariffs and sanctions. Trump also rejected the statements of the Prime Minister of Pakistan, in which he claimed that Lebanon was involved in the ceasefire agreement. Trump says the situation in Lebanon is different.
Anuj Singhal, Managing Editor, CNBC-Awaaz, advises maintaining “long” positions with trailing stop-losses and recommends buying on dips. For both existing and new long positions, the stop-loss should now be set at Rs 22,750. Recovery has already been seen in GIFT Nifty.
The market has now completely digested the negative impact of the conflict. Barring any major attack or new threat, the market is unlikely to fall further at this time. As long as Brent crude remains below $100, there is no cause for concern; In any case, the “new normal” for Brent is now likely to settle between $80 and $85.
It will take some time for prices to return to pre-war levels of $60–$65. Investors should now consider buying banking and NBFC stocks if they fall. The trend in the IT sector is still not clear. We will keep an eye on TCS’ comments today. Opportunities also exist in select Auto, Real Estate and Defense stocks.
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