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NBA player prop picks, odds, predictions, best bets: Model includes James Harden

Sandy Verma | April 9, 2026 9:24 AM CST

James Harden is a few weeks away from playing postseason basketball for his sixth different team, as one of the league’s most creative offensive guards continues to showcase his abilities in Cleveland. On Wednesday, Cleveland hosts the surging Atlanta Hawks for one of seven games on the Wednesday NBA slate in a contest that has seeding implications for both sides. Harden, now 36, is averaging below his career marks in points, rebounds and assists, and given the Hawks’ play over the last six weeks, the SportsLine Projection Model finds value in Harden to finish Under 33.5 total points + rebounds + assists as one of its top Wednesday NBA player prop picks for prop betting. He’s finished Under this total in three of his last four games.

The model is also backing Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija Under 40.5 total points + rebounds + assists against the Spurs when online sports betting for Wednesday NBA props. One of SportsLine’s top NBA experts has locked in his NBA player prop bet for Wednesday, picking Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox Over 20.5 points against Portland. Before locking in Wednesday NBA prop picks and other NBA bets on betting sites like FanDuel or DraftKings, be sure to check out top picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered Week 25 on a sizzling 47-20 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Top NBA player prop picks on Wednesday

James Harden, Cavaliers, Under 33.5 total points + rebounds + assists
Deni Avdija, Trail Blazers, Under 40.5 total points + rebounds + assists
De’Aaron Fox, Spurs, Over 20.5 total points

James Harden, Cavaliers, Under 33.5 total points + rebounds + assists

Harden has gone Under this total in three of his last four games entering a matchup against the Hawks, who have allowed 108 points or fewer in each of their last four games. The Hawks have been on a tear in recent weeks, going 18-3 over their last 21 games with improved defense being a key in the midseason turnaround. Harden went Over this total in each of his first two games against Atlanta, but both came before the Hawks’ turnaround, and this isn’t the same team he faced then. The model projects Harden’s recent trend of going Under this number to continue on Wednesday, projecting the 11-time All-Star for a PRA total of 30.4.

Deni Avdija, Trail Blazers, Under 40.5 total points + rebounds + assists

Despite playing 40 minutes and the game going into overtime, Avdija went Under this total against Denver on Monday with a 37 PRA total. He’s gone Under this total in five of his last seven games and is averaging a 37.7 PRA total this season. The Trail Blazers play the Spurs, who have the No. 8 scoring defense at 111.5 points per game allowed this season. Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama (ribs) is out, but the Spurs’ defensive success is about more than just one player. For NBA bettingthe model projects Avdija for a 37.7 PRA total.

De’Aaron Fox, Spurs, Over 20.5 total points

“De’Aaron Fox has been quiet lately, averaging only 13.4 points over his last eight games,” SportsLine NBA expert Mike Barner said. “During that stretch, he averaged just 28 minutes and 12.1 shot attempts. Expect both of those numbers to increase dramatically Wednesday with Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle both out for the Spurs. Over the last four games without Wembanyama, Fox scored 22, 27, 19 and 24 points, and that was with Castle playing in each of them. This is a great spot for Fox to thrive in the scoring column.