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India is likely to experience below-average monsoon rainfall in 2026, according to private forecaster Skymet. The impact of the El Niño weather pattern is expected to reduce precipitation during the latter half of the June–September season.

Skymet projects monsoon rainfall at 94% of the long-term average of 868.6 mm. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to release its official forecast for the season next week.

October–December Rainfall Key For Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh

The northeast monsoon, a shorter but vital phase from October to December, delivers rainfall primarily to southeastern India, including Tamil Nadu and parts of Andhra Pradesh, serving as a key water source.

India’s monsoon system, driven by seasonal wind shifts caused by temperature differences between land and sea, is central to both climate and economic stability. The southwest monsoon, spanning June to September, provides nearly three-quarters of the country’s annual rainfall and is crucial for the kharif crop cycle, including rice, cotton, and sugarcane.

Despite improvements in irrigation, a significant portion of farmland still relies on monsoon rains, making agricultural output highly sensitive to rainfall variability. A healthy monsoon supports rural incomes, food production, and economic growth, while a weak or uneven season can trigger crop losses, droughts, and inflationary pressures.

Increasing climate variability has further complicated the outlook, with erratic rainfall—ranging from delayed onset to intense downpours or prolonged dry spells—disrupting crop cycles, reducing yields, and straining rural livelihoods. Even winter rainfall from western disturbances remains crucial for rabi crops like wheat in northern India, highlighting the country’s broader dependence on seasonal weather patterns.