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Kerala Election 2026 Opinion Poll Survey: Kerala’s electoral battle is shaping up to be a cliffhanger, with the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) virtually tied, according to the latest opinion poll released ahead of the Assembly elections.

The Vote Tracker survey by VoteVibe, published on April 6 by CNN-News18, indicates that both alliances are within striking distance of the majority mark, setting the stage for a razor-thin finish.

Kerala Election: Opinion Poll Point To Tight Race

The survey projects the UDF could win between 64 and 74 seats in the 140-member Assembly, while the LDF is expected to secure between 63 and 73 seats. With 71 seats required for a majority, the margin separating the two alliances is minimal.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, is forecast to win between 1 and 5 seats, suggesting a limited role in determining the outcome.

Earlier editions of the same poll had shown a clearer advantage for the LDF, but the latest numbers reflect a significant narrowing of the gap as polling day approaches.

Vote Share Reveals Narrow Divide

Vote share estimates further underline the intensity of the contest. The UDF is projected to receive 39.7% of the vote, while the LDF is close behind at 38.7%.

With undecided voters still in play, even marginal swings could tip the balance in favour of either alliance, making the election highly unpredictable.

Leadership Contest Remains Close

The survey also highlights a tight race in leadership preference. Incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan leads with 31.3% support, while UDF leader V. D. Satheesan trails closely at 29.5%.

The slim margin suggests that voters are nearly evenly split not just on party lines, but also on leadership choices.

Mixed Verdict On LDF Governance

Public perception of the LDF government appears divided. Around 40% of respondents rated its performance as “good” or “very good,” while 43% described it as “poor” or “very poor.”

This split points to a potential anti-incumbency factor, which could play a decisive role in the final outcome.

Questions Over Congress Strategy

The poll also raises concerns about the Congress-led alliance’s approach to leadership projection. About 36.2% of respondents felt that presenting multiple chief ministerial faces could hurt the UDF’s prospects, compared to 24.5% who believed it would be beneficial.

As Kerala heads to the polls, the numbers suggest a fiercely contested election where every vote will count, and even the smallest shift could determine who forms the next government.