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Gold prices down 7% since February 28: Should you buy?
05 Apr 2026

Gold prices have fallen almost 7% since February 28, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The decline suggests a shift in investor focus toward the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

According to Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, gold prices increased by some 2.2% over the week but gains were capped due to a more than 10% surge in crude oil prices.

Geopolitical landscape remains uncertain
Market fluctuations

Sachdeva noted that the geopolitical landscape is still uncertain, with initial signs from Donald Trump and Iran suggesting a possible ceasefire.

However, the tone has changed, with tougher rhetoric and new threats of prolonged military action.

Meanwhile, Iran's IRGC Navy continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil prices high and raising concerns about inflation.

US economy showed resilience in March
Economic influence

From a macro perspective, the US economy showed resilience in March, with labor market data beating expectations.

Non-farm payrolls rose by 178,000 against an estimate of 65,000, while the unemployment rate was lower at 4.3% versus a forecast of 4.4%.

These factors increase the chances of Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, which supports the dollar and limits gains in bullion.

ETF outflows indicate decline in investor demand for gold
Demand trends

Sachdeva also highlighted continued ETF outflows during last month, with redemptions far exceeding inflows. This indicates a decline in investor demand for gold.

She believes that as long as oil prices stay high and rate-cut expectations remain delayed, bullion will see sharp volatility rather than a sustained rally.

In essence, gold remains caught between geopolitical uncertainty and the macro headwinds, with price action increasingly dictated by the crude oil trends and dollar strength, she added.

Gold's technical outlook
Price projections

Ponmudi R, the CEO of Enrich Money, said that overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with commodities slowly moving from consolidation to a recovery phase.

He also provided a technical outlook for COMEX gold prices, which are now holding above key short-term moving averages while facing resistance in the $4,700-$4,750 zone.

Sachdeva said MCX gold continues to consolidate with strong resistance at ₹1,57,600-₹1,58,800 per 10g on domestic bourses and $4,800-$4,880 per ounce internationally.