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New Delhi: Amid the ongoing crisis in West Asia, the Reserve Bank of India (MPC) is not expected to change repo rates in its three-day meeting starting from Monday. This has been said in the report released on Sunday by SBI Research, the research unit of State Bank of India.

The report said that since the last MPC meeting, there has been a major geopolitical change in the world in the form of the West Asia crisis. Especially the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected global trade. This is the biggest disruption in the crude oil market since 1973. According to the report, crude oil is currently above $ 100 per barrel and the rupee is below Rs 93 per dollar. Also a “Super El Nino” effect has been predicted. In view of all these factors, RBI will maintain the status quo in the statement to be issued on April 08 while exercising caution.

The report said that in the financial year 2025-26, foreign institutional investors made a net withdrawal of $ 16.6 billion from the Indian capital market, which is the highest since 1991. In March this year alone, they withdrew $13.6 billion, which is the highest after March 2020 ($15.9 billion). The rupee is under pressure and has fallen by three rupees per dollar in 114 days. The price of crude oil remains high. The combined result of all this will be that the consumer price based inflation rate will be more than 4.5 percent in the next three quarters. Meteorologists have predicted a 62 percent chance of the El Nino effect being active between June and August this year.

Also, this year it has been said that there will be “Super El Nino”. This means temperatures will be more than two degrees Celsius above the long-term average. This will affect the monsoon in India, on which most of the Kharif farming still depends. All these factors reduce the chances of cutting repo rates. SBI Research expects the central bank to take measures to strengthen the rupee rather than changing repo rates.