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The country may receive up to three million fewer foreign visitors in 2026 if the war persists for six months, Natthriya Thaweevong, permanent secretary at the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, said as quoted by Bloomberg.

Such a decline would reduce arrivals to around 28 million, comparable to 2023 levels and well below the government’s 35 million target.

The projected shortfall could cost the economy about 150 billion baht (US$4.5 billion), equivalent to roughly 10% of Thailand’s foreign tourism revenue in 2025, The Business Times reported.

Ongoing conflict‑ airspace closures in the Middle East have forced airlines to reroute or cancel flights on major Europe-Asia corridors, increasing the cost of travel to Thailand.

Luxury hotels across Thailand are rolling out deep discounts to attract domestic travelers amid a drop in foreign arrivals.

Even in a more optimistic scenario where the conflict ends by late March, Thailand could still lose between one and two million visitors, according to insiders.

Between Jan. 1 and March 22, Thailand welcomed 8.54 million foreign visitors in 2026, down around 3% year-on-year.

In 2025, total arrivals reached 32.97 million, a 7.23% decline from the previous year, amid disruptions including an earthquake in Myanmar, severe flooding, and border clashes with Cambodia.

To support the industry, the government is considering domestic stimulus measures, including tax deductions linked to tourism spending. Additional proposals under discussion include temporary tax cuts or debt relief for hotel operators, as well as fuel allocation measures to ensure tour buses can maintain operations, Bnagkok Post reported.