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SBI Report: India’s GDP boom in the last quarter of FY 2025, SBI estimates up to 6.5%

Samira Vishwas | May 21, 2025 6:24 PM CST

SBI Report: India’s GDP boom in the last quarter of FY 2025

News India Live, Digital Desk: Despite the effects caused by global upheaval, the Indian economy remains largely flexible and the growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter of FY 2025 is estimated to be 6.4–6.5 percent, a SBI report on Wednesday said.

GDP To make statistical estimates, the State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department has created a ‘Nucasting Model’ with 36 high frequency indicators associated with industry activity, service activity and global economy.

The model uses the dynamic factor model to estimate the general or representative or latent factor of all high frequency indicators from the fourth quarter of FY 2013 to the second quarter of FY 2023. SBI Group Chief Economic Advisor Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh said, “According to our ‘Nucasting Model’, the estimated GDP growth for the fourth quarter of FY 2025 should come around 6.4-6.5 percent.”

Ghosh said that assuming that the upcoming data released by the NSO has no major amendment to the first to third quarter estimates, “We hope GDP will be 6.3 percent in FY 25.” The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the South-west monsoon is likely to reach Kerala within the next four to five days-long before its normal beginning date of 1 June.

If the monsoon arrives in Kerala as per the forecast, it would be the earliest arrival on the mainland of India since 2009, when the monsoon came on 23 May.

The SBI report said, “India has set a target of producing 354.64 million tonnes of food grains in the 2025-26 crop year starting from July on the basis of better monsoon rains. The government has targeted 341.55 million tonnes of food grains (so far) in the current 2024-25 crop year.”

In addition, taking indications from the domestic survey, the recession in the expectations of the current domestic inflation encourages high discretionary expenses and promotes demand-based development, while the status quo in consumer confidence suggests that domestic global growth and economic possibilities are uncertain-short-term perspectives lead to some extent caution on sustainable development.

Trade stress is expected to have significant impact on global economic activity with a very high level of rapid growth and policy uncertainty. According to the IMF, the global growth rate is estimated to be reduced to 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026.

For India, development approach is relatively more stable at 6.2 percent (6.3 percent for FY 2026) in FY 2025, which is supported by personal consumption, especially in rural areas, but this rate is 30 bps less than earlier estimates due to high level of trade stress and global uncertainty. “

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